ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Made a sticky thread for local news, information, observations.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123612

Feel free to add local info there and echo it here if desired.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Bj0p0bPrJ_k[/youtube]

[eastcoastFL]

Looks to be rising right up 85w

[TallyTracker]

Pinellas County right on the coast has not issued any evacuation orders yet! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

Probably going to wait for 5pm

I understand the local officials hesitancy to pull the trigger on evacuations. They will get flack no matter what decision they make. If they order an evacuation that is not needed, people will be more complacent next time and they will get chewed out or even fired for their decisions. With that said, personally I find it better to err on the side of caution every time. Evacuations are a life and death matter in a surge zone. I’d rather see people mad and alive at the end of the storm.

I personally plan to evacuate here in Tallahassee since I live in a heavily treed area with a high risk of a tree falling on my rental. The NWS is saying the risk of Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds is increasing here. Would not be surprised to be under a hurricane warning here come 5 pm. I’d rather be out a few hundred dollars for hotels and gas than risk my family’s safety. Some risks are just not worth it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Poonwalker]

Pinellas County right on the coast only is having zone A evacuated at this point! Cannot believe this, the surge could be more than anyone has seen. Are they just throwing up their hands at this point?

This is standard, it allows the level A evacuees time and space to leave, they will then move to B and so on.

[ColdMiser123]

The last recon dropsonde was 988 mb/13 KT, so assuming pressure will tick down to 987 mb at the 1800 UTC update.

[Airboy]

#741 Postby Airboy » Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:50 pm
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 28

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 16:59:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.06N 85.14W
B. Center Fix Location: 111 statute miles (178 km) to the E (94°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,338m (4,390ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 305° at 13kts (From the NW at 15mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 60kts (69.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ESE (111°) of center fix at 16:51:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 208° at 58kts (From the SSW at 66.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (114°) of center fix at 16:52:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36kts (41.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 17:05:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 37° at 34kts (From the NE at 39.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix at 17:05:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) which was observed 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:16:00Z
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696215609481027948




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696215611196441026




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1696215613306233233

[tolakram]

I can't read the friendly version

117
URNT12 KNHC 281745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 28/16:59:20Z
B. 21.06 deg N 085.14 deg W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 988 mb
E. 305 deg 13 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 60 kt
I. 111 deg 20 nm 16:51:00Z
J. 208 deg 58 kt
K. 114 deg 17 nm 16:52:00Z
L. 36 kt
M. 305 deg 15 nm 17:05:00Z
N. 037 deg 34 kt
O. 306 deg 16 nm 17:05:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 23 C / 1517 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF309 0510A IDALIA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 043 / 36 NM 12:16:00Z
;

[ColdMiser123]

Winss up to 60 kt/pressure down to 987 mb with the 2 pm advisory

[cane5]

This so reminds me of last year when the ICON was the only model that got it right with a tragic destruction of the lower West Coast. Idalia looks like parts of it is heading towards South Florida. It’s just a blip but what I learn is when everyone thinks they have it right …take the opposite side.

[cycloneye]

I can't read the friendly version

117
URNT12 KNHC 281745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 28/16:59:20Z
B. 21.06 deg N 085.14 deg W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 988 mb
E. 305 deg 13 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 60 kt
I. 111 deg 20 nm 16:51:00Z
J. 208 deg 58 kt
K. 114 deg 17 nm 16:52:00Z
L. 36 kt
M. 305 deg 15 nm 17:05:00Z
N. 037 deg 34 kt
O. 306 deg 16 nm 17:05:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 23 C / 1517 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF309 0510A IDALIA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 043 / 36 NM 12:16:00Z
;

What I can tell you is it confirms the 988.3 that I posted at recon thread and there is still no eye.

[fllawyer]

Quick take - 5am EDT discussion forecast Idalia would be at 21.1N/85.1W at 2pm (1800z). Per NHC 2pm ET coordinates, Idalia is at 21.2N/85.1W. So, ever so slightly north of their forecast. Just an observation.

[CronkPSU]

when is the NW motion many models predicted supposed to occur?

[MetsIslesNoles]

when is the NW motion many models predicted supposed to occur?

In the next 12-24 hours.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the high resolution satellite, it looks like the most recent hot towers are making an attempt to wrap around the center. They also look like they are making better progress than earlier.

[Steve]

when is the NW motion many models predicted supposed to occur?

It may not be a motion per se but just organizing as it pulses. It’s across 85 at 85.14. I don’t think it gets much farther west though. Public advisory only shows it ever getting to 85.2 in the next several hours. It will probably move 360/N for a while then begin its fade NNE.

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Mouton]

FWIW Jax just called off school there in Duval Cty through thursday.