ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Radar indicates the convection is struggling to wrap upshear.

I agree. Though past couple of hours, you can see outflow banding with deep convection prevailing to the NNE. Probably a sign of the environment becoming more moist and shear becoming favorable.

[jdjaguar]

Models have shifted a bit west.
Landfall now pointing to the St Marks area, heading inland just east of Tallahassee and then bending NE into Ga.

[jdjaguar]

Looking at the visible, I agree with the above poster that an eye looks to be popping out.
Should resolve over the next few hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Honestly I think this storm will benefit me somewhat if it move more north. North ga has been starved of moisture for a while. Preferably as a sloppy Tropical storm, although I strongly doubt that will happen. Nonetheless, we need the rain.

[underthwx]

From the 18:05 UTC Tropical Weather Discussion NHC....."For the forecast, Tropical Storm Idalia is near 20.8N 85.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Idalia will strengthen to a hurricane near 22.0N 85.2W this evening, move to 23.9N 85.1W Tue morning, 26.4N 84.6W Tue evening, 29.2N 83.5W Wed morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.9N 81.2W Wed evening, and 33.6N 78.0W Thu morning. Idalia will change little in intensity as it moves to near 34.6N 71.2W early Fri. High pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Idalia late in the week."

[psyclone]

Models have shifted a bit west.
Landfall now pointing to the St Marks area, heading inland just east of Tallahassee and then bending NE into Ga.

That's a substantial shift west. the nhc moved west at 11. maybe they do again at 5.

[Steve]

The the convection quickly covered the center as the shear let up just a little.
Trough to the north squeezed east so pretty sure that one missed.
The next trough doesn't have much 250 MB easterly wind component that would steer Idalia NNE as depicted by the models yet.

As Franklin moves northeast you would think the teering flow would shift NE north of Florida?

Yeah I'd agree with that. But there is supposed to be building high pressure off the SE Coast, so as the pattern changes, the flow does as well (from the SSW south of Idalia and to the north based on western periphery of the SW Atlantic High). The first trough is missing it since it's too far south. What the NHC mentioned was a squeeze play which was a building ridge in the SW Atlantic and the second trough. So that's probably what nudges it up toward the descending trough which would be enough influence to get it off the coast. Just not sure what happens after that.

Not much of a squeeze play till after landfall but Jacksonville has already canceled school.

https://i.imgur.com/YV3iyqN.jpg

Not super pronounced but you can see the flow around the ridge to the east of Idalia (clockwise) pushing it up as it moves up anyway with the SSW/SW flow in place to its west. Acceleration in speed, if it materializes heading in, will be the indication that was the only option and NHC got it right. It’s going to come and it’s going to get offshore of the SE Atlantic Coast. It’s after that I’m not sure. Maybe collapsed currents and it meanders? Maybe it pulls the Ivan GFS is suggesting and further ridging sets up a blocking pattern. It won’t come off as far north as New Jersey though. Ivan was its own thing that probably won’t happen again like what it did any time soon.

[Iceresistance]

Looking at the visible, I agree with the above poster that an eye looks to be popping out.
Should resolve over the next few hours.

I don't see any current indication of an eye from Idalia


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif

[jdjaguar]

Looking at the visible, I agree with the above poster that an eye looks to be popping out.
Should resolve over the next few hours.

I don't see any current indication of an eye from Idalia

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif

it was there a few frames ago, must have filled back in.
regardless, we all know its just a matter of time.

[psyclone]

Idalia has a sheared teardrop look that Laura had before it went nuts in the gulf. tomorrow we should have rapid development as the shear abates and the storm traverses freakishly warm waters.

[Gatos del Sol]

If the Cedar Key/Perry solution verifies, that area is warm, wet swamp-pretty much Everglades north- not a ton of friction to slow down wind speeds as the storm moves inland- think Wilma 2005 across the Everglades possibilities. The I-75 corridor could get a more vigorous storm than expected.

I’d also be concerned about US 19/27 sustaining substantial damage and being impassible for a while- a lot of that road seems to be less than a foot above swamp level (It’s actually a pretty freaky drive between Tallahassee and Tampa) and there are not a ton of alternate routes through that region. Same goes for US 98 between St. Mark’s and Perry.

[chris_fit]

Absolutely horrible radar signature... still.... And seems to be hung the right side of guidance.

[Frank P]

Big explosion of convection over the center vis sat imagery.


image hosting

[underthwx]

Looking at the visible, I agree with the above poster that an eye looks to be popping out.
Should resolve over the next few hours.

I don't see any current indication of an eye from Idalia

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif

it was there a few frames ago, must have filled back in.
regardless, we all know its just a matter of time.

I also thought I saw on infrared imagery a couple hours ago, what appeared to me, to be an eye starting to form....

[TallyTracker]

Gonna be a close call as to whether Idalia officially landfalls in Cuba.

[REDHurricane]

Convective banding forming around what may soon become Idalia's eye:

[Sciencerocks]

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the visible, I agree with the above poster that an eye looks to be popping out.
Should resolve over the next few hours.

I don't see any current indication of an eye from Idalia

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif

The spot that I saw earlier has since been covered by a burst of convection.

[Cat5James]

Sure looks like its jogging NNE instead of NNW those past few frames. Doesnt look to be avoiding the western tip of Cuba.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see any current indication of an eye from Idalia

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggVp.gif

it was there a few frames ago, must have filled back in.
regardless, we all know its just a matter of time.

I also thought I saw on infrared imagery a couple hours ago, what appeared to me, to be an eye starting to form....

You won’t get an eye with an incomplete core like that. That said, this could change rather quickly and I expect it to tonight.