ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

Didn't the models predict a wobble NW when near/passing Cuba? I'm a bit concerned it might wobble east right above the western tip of cuba as it may interact over land (yes i know that area of cuba is not mountainous) In my experience, hurricanes tend to hug a coast line even in the form of a wobble. Models have me tryna reason as to why it wants Idalia to wobble NW then N.

[zzzh]

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/VXaWmZa.jpg

Is that the center, directly over the extreme western tip of Cuba?....

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/VXaWmZa.jpg

Is that the center, directly over the extreme western tip of Cuba?....

No, the center is just to the south of the western tip of Cuba

[robbielyn]

So now its moving more west and that is good news for the peninsula. Means business as usual, probably a Michael (child). We got nothing from michael as it passed us to the west. These storms don't like the west coast thats for sure

[gatorcane]

It does looks more NNE but maybe shear is making it look that way.

[eastcoastFL]

Are these intense thunderstorms were getting here in Martin county affiliated with the Idalia at all? Or just a lot of instability and moisture in the air?

[eastcoastFL]

She looks to be cooking now and still hugging that 85W line.

[zzzh]

LLC likely on the western edge of the new hot tower.

[ScottNAtlanta]

As far as the "schedule" goes, none of the hurricane models have this wrapping around to form a closed eye wall until well after it passes Cuba. It's about 3mb lower in pressure, but as it stands this is keeping in what has been forecast my the hurricane models.

[Bocadude85]

Idalia better make the NNW wobble immediately if she is going to miss the western tip of Cuba as a lot of the 12Z models are forecasting

[chris_fit]

Idalia better make the NNW wobble immediately if she is going to miss the western tip of Cuba as a lot of the 12Z models are forecasting

And the NHC forecasting that as well (along wiht a slight W component)

[eastcoastFL]

What kind of mission is the noaa49 flight doing? They’re on a strange route and pattern so far and flying at 43,000

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a theory that i've considered over the years regarding the frictional effects of land as it relates to a storm's path. We all know that land has an effect on a storm's strength. But over the years I've watched many storms go through sudden course changes when they approach land masses. There are some excellent examples of this, most notably is probably Ivan going around Jamaica in 2004. A case could also be made for Charley and Ian as well. I'm sure that I'm not the only one to consider this and there have probably been numerous studies done about it. The biggest point I'm trying to make is that I don't think that is a factor that the models consider with regard to track. If that is the case, then perhaps that is why we get these last-minute surprises such as what happened with Charley and Ian. With Charley, it was almost as if Charlotte Harbor just sucked it in. Ian seemed to pinwheel into the coast as well. Is anyone aware of any studies that have been done with regard to this possibility?

[Iceresistance]

What kind of mission is the noaa49 flight doing? They’re on a strange route and pattern so far and flying at 43,000

Upper-level Dropsonde mission

[psyclone]

it looks like Idalia's east weighted convective pattern is exerting a gentle rightward tug

[cycloneye]

The NOAA plane to Idalia has departed.

[jasons2k]

I have a theory that i've considered over the years regarding the frictional effects of land as it relates to a storm's path. We all know that land has an effect on a storm's strength. But over the years I've watched many storms go through sudden course changes when they approach land masses. There are some excellent examples of this, most notably is probably Ivan going around Jamaica in 2004. A case could also be made for Charley and Ian as well. I'm sure that I'm not the only one to consider this and there have probably been numerous studies done about it. The biggest point I'm trying to make is that I don't think that is a factor that the models consider with regard to track. If that is the case, then perhaps that is why we get these last-minute surprises such as what happened with Charley and Ian. With Charley, it was almost as if Charlotte Harbor just sucked it in. Ian seemed to pinwheel into the coast as well. Is anyone aware of any studies that have been done with regard to this possibility?

I don’t have anything handy but a lot was written about this and Hurricane Isidore and its land interaction with the Yucatan.

At the end of the day, it’s just physics.

[stormhunter7]

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[AutoPenalti]

I have a theory that i've considered over the years regarding the frictional effects of land as it relates to a storm's path. We all know that land has an effect on a storm's strength. But over the years I've watched many storms go through sudden course changes when they approach land masses. There are some excellent examples of this, most notably is probably Ivan going around Jamaica in 2004. A case could also be made for Charley and Ian as well. I'm sure that I'm not the only one to consider this and there have probably been numerous studies done about it. The biggest point I'm trying to make is that I don't think that is a factor that the models consider with regard to track. If that is the case, then perhaps that is why we get these last-minute surprises such as what happened with Charley and Ian. With Charley, it was almost as if Charlotte Harbor just sucked it in. Ian seemed to pinwheel into the coast as well. Is anyone aware of any studies that have been done with regard to this possibility?

I don’t have anything handy but a lot was written about this and Hurricane Isidore and its land interaction with the Yucatan.

At the end of the day, it’s just physics.

Physics that even High Res models have a hard time of solving.