ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

When I went to bed last night it looked like it was getting its act back together.

Now I wake up to a storm that looks like a sheared TS(yes I'm aware it's not an actual TS) about to have its LLC exposed.

This is crazy lol

It’s been sheared to hell but its llc is far from exposed. I had a bit of pause about the perceived restrengthening phase last night because even though convection was a lot deeper, it still looked like it was rapidly pulsing out of a single spot instead of wrapping around the core. This latest burst is a genuine attempt at a core wrap, which could signal some recovery if it continues.

[sikkar]

Bouy close to center.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=E&tz=STN

[wxman57]

So, does the weaker this thing remains mean it could get further west before making a northward turn? I have seen this game over and over again in the Atlantic and am pretty sure it will restrengthen. But I am indeed a bit curious about steering patterns based on short-term strength.

It would have to degenerate into a wave or a highly-sheared and weak TS to get past 70W. And if it were to get past 70W it would be ripped apart by shear.

[cycloneye]

A good question that I have. Does the shear that has been relentless tearing Lee, is from an upper trough or is from El Niño induced shear as it is from the South?

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4z2r.gif

Definite rotation of the hot tower(s)

[abajan]

Lee doesn't look good at all, with mid-level southerly shear and northerly upper-level shear?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4bA8.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4bA8.gif

I understand what you mean but technically it's actually westerly shear, not southerly. To be honest, only after viewing Levi Cowan's video yesterday did I know that's how shear is defined.

[Craters]

A good question that I have. Does the shear that has been relentless tearing Lee, is from an upper trough or is from El Niño induced shear as it is from the South?

Great question, Luis. I was going to wait until much later to ask it, but you're obviously braver than I am!

[wxman57]

A good question that I have. Does the shear that has been relentless tearing Lee, is from an upper trough or is from El Niño induced shear as it is from the South?

The shear is/was being caused by Lee outrunning the ridge above it. When it moved west of the ridge axis, the clockwise flow on the west side of the ridge became southerly shear.

Looks like shear has abated today. Good outflow to the SW now. Should see an eye pop out soon.

[psyclone]

Lee giving us yet another reminder that despite their power, a TC is a remarkably fragile mountain of steam and we get constantly surprised. Since it's peak season it's probably just a matter of time before it finds itself back in a favorable environment and goes bananas again.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still having trouble bringing that convection around to the se quad, but the fact that it now has a convectively active band developing to its south suggests shear is abating. Should have a strengthening storm by evening if trends continue

[Sciencerocks]

[Tekken_Guy]

What needs to happen for Lee to regain its former strength?

[cheezyWXguy]

That tower rounding the southern eyewall is a strong one. Should be enough to get Lee off the ground again.

[dukeblue219]

What needs to happen for Lee to regain its former strength?

Everything to go exactly right.

Don't forget that storms don't have memories of their past selves. Lee is no more likely to regain its past 165mph strength than any other borderline Cat 2/3 storm is to become a Cat 5.

That said, if it can clear out the eye, it has time remaining over warm waters, so if the shear environment disappears, a Cat 5 is perfectly possible.

[dukeblue219]

That tower rounding the southern eyewall is a strong one. Should be enough to get Lee off the ground again.

We've been saying it for 24 hours but it really does look on the verge of a classic powerful hurricane on the Vis

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/DaveNolan305/status/1700515033543770471

[GCANE]

The UL NNE to SSW shear seems to be letting up a little.
An indication that Lee may be transversing the periphery of the ARWB and getting into the calm part of it.
GFS was forecasting this but about 12 to 24 hrs later.

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/DaveNolan305/status/1700515033543770471

 https://twitter.com/DaveNolan305/status/1700517830486110299

[Craters]

The outflow over the CDO in the SE quad in visible is starting to look pretty healthy. Gravity waves moving eastward.

[Kazmit]

Starting to look remarkably circular and symmetrical on visible imagery. The CDO has grown too. Seems like another attempt at a strengthening trend.