ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

So with these shifts west and they keep shifting, unless it shifts back. I question the need for 2 whole days off of school. Maybe they could retract one? ( tampa south)

[d3v123]

So with these shifts west and they keep shifting, unless it shifts back. I question the need for 2 whole days off of school. Maybe they could retract one? ( tampa south)

Wondering the same thing, it feels like impact is shaping up to be less than anticipated

[Nimbus]

AF304 looks to be having trouble finding Idalia’s LLC.

NOAA crew has no trouble doing that. No idea what the AF plane is doing.

Kind of a redundant flight unless they were sampling different data.
The model tracks have converged like a lighthouse Fresnel lens so we know pretty much where its going.
Questions about intensity need a lot of data and wind field calculations from intensity even harder to make this far out.

[GCANE]

The tower firing on the tip of Cuba looks to be right on the mid-level CoC

[Zonacane]

The tower firing on the tip of Cuba looks to be right on the mid-level CoC

That would be the first time the MLC and LLC have been stacked.

[tolakram]

You can see the upper low moving away in this WV loop. Not sure shear is completely gone, but it should be lessoning from here on out.

[Bocadude85]

If Idalia truly makes landfall at the strength and location where the models and NHC track project her to, then it will be the first time in recorded history that area has had a major hurricane landfall..kind of mind boggling to think about.

[BeRad954]

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif
Cuban Radar looks like the convection made it around the NW quadrant

[Keldeo1997]

:Joker: And...here...we.......GO

[johngaltfla]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

Eric burris will die on that hill, will see if it verifies

I'm not going to dismiss it out of hand. The only historical hurricane analogue I can find close to this one (Cat 3+) is the 1921 storm. We'll see by tomorrow afternoon.

[Bocadude85]

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif
Cuban Radar looks like the convection made it around the NW quadrant

Also looks like the coc moved NE from the 8pm update, I’m guessing that convective burst pulled the coc eastward

[xironman]

You can see the upper low moving away in this WV loop. Not sure shear is completely gone, but it should be lessoning from here on out.

https://imgur.com/EKyep1N

The northeastern gulf looks like a juicy place to be for TC

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Poonwalker]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1144728610096292020/1145883199134760960/image.png


:Joker: And...here...we.......GO

That’s a wrap!

[Lance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1144728610096292020/1145883199134760960/image.png


:Joker: And...here...we.......GO

That’s a wrap!

Appears to be a bit more east and is going over the tip of Cuba. Down the road effects?? Who knows, but we shall see.

[FLLurker32]

WESH 2 in Central Florida still sharing that their in-house FutureCast model is East on the cone with hurricane impacts to north central FL.

Eric burris will die on that hill, will see if it verifies

I'm not going to dismiss it out of hand. The only historical hurricane analogue I can find close to this one (Cat 3+) is the 1921 storm. We'll see by tomorrow afternoon.

It shouldn’t be dismissed. It’s within the current NHC cone but on the eastern side. They’re making it clear it’s a current outlier but still something to watch. It wouldn’t take much of an eastern wobble during intensification for it to verify.

[JaxGator]

If Idalia truly makes landfall at the strength and location where the models and NHC track project her to, then it will be the first time in recorded history that area has had a major hurricane landfall..kind of mind boggling to think about.

Not since the 1896 Cedar Key Hurricane.

[tolakram]

SLIDER Proxy Visible: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5307&y=6439&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=cira_geoproxy&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Full8s]

So with these shifts west and they keep shifting, unless it shifts back. I question the need for 2 whole days off of school. Maybe they could retract one? ( tampa south)

That genie cannot go back into the bottle.

[Ianswfl]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1144728610096292020/1145883199134760960/image.png


:Joker: And...here...we.......GO

That’s a wrap!

Appears to be a bit more east and is going over the tip of Cuba. Down the road effects?? Who knows, but we shall see.

Recon confirms this as well. Lowest pressure is at 85.1 still.