ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1621 Postby zzzh » Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:26 pm

131
URNT12 KNHC 101921
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 10/19:05:30Z
B. 22.07 deg N 061.51 deg W
C. 700 mb 2715 m
D. 954 mb
E. 063 deg 3 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C22
H. 106 kt
I. 301 deg 14 nm 19:01:30Z
J. 036 deg 99 kt
K. 303 deg 17 nm 19:00:30Z
L. 84 kt
M. 134 deg 17 nm 19:10:30Z
N. 235 deg 103 kt
O. 134 deg 19 nm 19:11:00Z
P. 8 C / 3046 m
Q. 18 C / 3048 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1213A LEE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 047 / 19 NM 17:35:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 301 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Note that the eyewall is now open to the east, but contracted a lot.
Pressure is still falling.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1622 Postby dukeblue219 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:31 pm

Dropsonde finding 127kt aloft in the NE eyewall as well... pretty solid gusts all the way down.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1623 Postby TorSkk » Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:34 pm

Lee has another shot at cat 5 now imo
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1624 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:34 pm

Yeah, I think Lee heard ya'll making fun of him and got a bit angry :lol:
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1625 Postby Airboy » Sun Sep 10, 2023 2:41 pm

Looks like they eye is starting to clear out
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1626 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1627 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:07 pm

Here comes round two.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1628 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:08 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1629 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:10 pm

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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to cat 3 100 kt

#1630 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:11 pm



Ooohhh looks like an angry 9! :grrr:
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1631 Postby Landy » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1632 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:24 pm

AF is done. The pressure dropped 2 mb between passes, so it seems that deepening has resumed.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1633 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:28 pm

On Lee's first Peak, there was a solid W ring, but not much CMG or CDG. This one has potential to be even stronger than the first peak if/when the wind shear collapses.

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https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pjx.gif
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1634 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Sep 10, 2023 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LEE RESTRENGTHENING...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 61.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1635 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:12 pm

Here we go, this is Round #2

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.6 6.4
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1636 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:18 pm

Welp, Lee is making me look pretty bad right now.
Impressive intensification today
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1637 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:20 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Welp, Lee is making me look pretty bad right now.
Impressive intensification today

:tease:
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1638 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:21 pm


With all that cirrus around it could be an interesting looking sunset in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands this evening.
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1639 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:32 pm

Liftoff.

Image
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Re: ATL: LEE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1640 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:36 pm

I’m still skeptical. The HAFS models are showing prolonged EWRC issues, and based on infrared/visible, there might be an outer eyewall (see the east side of the CDO).
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