ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

Huge blowup in the N eyewall:

[Iceresistance]

Huge blowup in the N eyewall:
https://i.postimg.cc/JnvvyRKS/goes16-ir-meso1.gif

Which has literally led to this drop


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pB7.png

[aspen]

Dang this is looking good now. Solid pressure drop between passes and the eyewall drop supports 105-110 kt.

[zzzh]

Drop has 952mb and 3kt. No pressure drop from last pass.

[zzzh]

Huge blowup in the N eyewall:
https://i.postimg.cc/JnvvyRKS/goes16-ir-meso1.gif

Which has literally led to this drop

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pB7.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pB7.png

Weird mixing here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Drop has 952mb and 3kt. No pressure drop from last pass.

Strange that the extrapolated pressure could be spot on in the first pass but 4mb low in the second. Would expect there to be a consistent discrepancy between extrap and drop in each pass for a given flight

[psyclone]

Lee has a fat tire of convection surrounding its center...it's looking like a well aged and very durable hurricane and probably somewhat more shear resistant than the tightly wound top it was.

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing’s for sure, the windfield has significantly symmetrized. If this keeps up pressure and eventually winds will respond

[bob rulz]

Not sure why people were doubting Lee so much. We should know better than to write off a hurricane in this part of the basin at this time of year, that already has a history of RI.

[Iceresistance]

VDM #2 has a smaller eye

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132023
A. 10/23:08:23Z
B. 22.30 deg N 061.80 deg W
C. 700 MB 2692 m
D. 952 mb
E. 055 deg 02 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 95 kt
I. 006 deg 12 nm 23:05:38Z
J. 085 deg 107 kt
K. 004 deg 15 nm 23:04:48Z
L. 84 kt
M. 181 deg 16 nm 23:12:11Z
N. 264 deg 97 kt
O. 181 deg 18 nm 23:12:41Z
P. 11 C / 3064 m
Q. 17 C / 3062 m
R. NA C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 1413A LEE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 107 KT 004 / 15 NM 23:04:48Z

[Iceresistance]

Wow.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pBB.png

[HurricaneBelle]

Not sure why people were doubting Lee so much. We should know better than to write off a hurricane in this part of the basin at this time of year, that already has a history of RI.

A lot of manic/depressive posters in here, every short-term trend gets extrapolated, and there's no mercy for a storm that doesn't provide the expected entertainment.

[chaser1]

Enjoyable day! The Dolphins get the "W", and Lee gets it's "I". Unfortunately, the storms slow motion is leading me to increasingly think that Maine or Nova Scotia could be looking at a strong Cat 1 or 2 landfall.

[chaser1]

Not sure why people were doubting Lee so much. We should know better than to write off a hurricane in this part of the basin at this time of year, that already has a history of RI.

A lot of manic/depressive posters in here, every short-term trend gets extrapolated, and there's no mercy for a storm that doesn't provide the expected entertainment.

It's just sleep depravation, they'll all be just fine. I've order each of them an asperin and an ERC, and instructed them to call you in the morning.

[ElectricStorm]

948mb extrap, NW quad supports 100-105kts so there could be some stronger winds in NE quad

[aspen]

950/4 eye drop, nice and saturated still.

[Iceresistance]

Raw ADT at a 7.1

Lee may become a Category 5 again

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak at 6.0.

A. 13L (LEE)

B. 11/0000Z

C. 22.4N

D. 61.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN A DT
OF 6.0 AFTER ADDING A 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 6.0 BASED
ON RAPID 24HR DEVELOPMENT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[Nimbus]

Starting to get interesting to watch again.
Are they calling for re intensification to a cat 5?

[aspen]

NW eyewall drop has 132 kt winds at the 942mb level.