ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

Lee woke up and having a monster ventilation right now.

[dukeblue219]

Wobble watching would lead me to believe the motion is NNW if anything...

[Iceresistance]

Wobble watching would lead me to believe the motion is NNW if anything...

The last recon fixes suggest NW to WNW movement, but he's not moving really fast.

[hohnywx]

Starting to get interesting to watch again.
Are they calling for re intensification to a cat 5?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2036.shtml

[Dsci4]

Wobble watching would lead me to believe the motion is NNW if anything...

2am forecast point is supposed to be 22.7N 62.7W. If it’s likely to deviate at all it’ll probably happen as it’s deepening… they seem more likely to wobble when they deepen rapidly

[cheezyWXguy]

Kind of strange that the cdo keeps reverting back to that “Venn diagram” appearance. Makes me think mid level shear is trying to make a reappearance but I don’t really see any evidence of it on satellite.

[Dsci4]

Wobble watching would lead me to believe the motion is NNW if anything...

2am forecast point is supposed to be 22.7N 62.7W. If it’s likely to deviate at all it’ll probably happen as it’s deepening… they seem more likely to wobble when they deepen rapidly

And I’ll add to this that if you watch the current water vapor loop the center appears to be moving much more WNW-NW. I don’t know if that’s a proper way to use the WV loop to determine heading but to me it seems much better defined than the IR loop currently

[Kazmit]

Now cloud tops are warming again…

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4L25.png

This was at 9:06 PM CDT!

[Iceresistance]

Recon just had a 125 knot FL wind in the northern eyewall

Extrapolated pressure down to 946.9 mb

[dukeblue219]

Recon just had a 125 knot FL wind in the northern eyewall

Extrapolated pressure down to 946.9 mb

NOAA better be getting some good science because they're in and out of the eye wall a ton in the last hour and change. Very different from a vanilla USAF pattern.

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7451/92yIHo.gif

I think we are looking at a C4/C5 in the next 24 hours. JMHO.

[cheezyWXguy]

Recon just had a 125 knot FL wind in the northern eyewall

Extrapolated pressure down to 946.9 mb

Looks like they didn’t even hit the true center either, just grazed the eye

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7451/92yIHo.gif

I think we are looking at a C4/C5 in the next 24 hours. JMHO.

It's already at 105 kt, so a minimum Cat 4 is only 10 kt away and quite doable. The big question is whether it can get to a high-end C4 or a C5.

[Hurricaneman]

This has to mix out some dry air on the north side but once it does this could get stronger than people are expecting

[Iceresistance]

I must go to bed, today has been crazy

[dexterlabio]

Lee's shape tells me that shear still has some influence but it's no longer strong enough to prevent core building.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1701049953647473092

[bob rulz]

Lee looks so strange on IR. I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane pulse up and down so much over the course of a couple of days. It's like every rotation of the eyewall there's a different amount of convection.