ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

:double: https://imgur.com/ict1yTA.
Kinda ironic?

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

Exactly, that's why I'm going with a Cat 2 at landfall. Splitting the difference between what the NHC is saying and what the Models(GFS/EURO) is saying. I think Cat 3 is too high, but hey I could be wrong.

[Fancy1002]

I’m afraid the plane will miss the mark.

[jfk08c]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.

That's the problem with having a fascination with weather. There's something about the power of a huge system that words can't describe. But you also have the remember, that monster is going to destroy someone's property, life, everything they know. Respect the weather and admire the beauty but don't wish for it

[Kohlecane]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.

"out in the Atlantic and collect ACE"* fixed it lol

[wx98]

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

Exactly, that's why I'm going with a Cat 2 at landfall. Splitting the difference between what the NHC is saying and what the Models(GFS/EURO) is saying. I think Cat 3 is too high, but hey I could be wrong.

The European frequent underdoes the intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

Exactly, that's why I'm going with a Cat 2 at landfall. Splitting the difference between what the NHC is saying and what the Models(GFS/EURO) is saying. I think Cat 3 is too high, but hey I could be wrong.

The European frequent underdoes the intensity.

Which is why I'm splitting the difference between the EURO and NHC and not predicting it as weak as the EURO is predicting it.

[lafaa]

https://i.imgur.com/YVa8WVX.jpg

Welp...

Looks like a pinhole eye, could lead to rapid intensification shortly

It's not a pinhole eye, it's still a TS/Barely a C1

[wx98]

They still aren't able to get the center due to Cuban airspace. Doesn't appear to be stronger though and may be a tad weaker.

[Fancy1002]

I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure the plane is north of the core heading north east. I think they might’ve missed. I’m going to bed.

[wx98]

I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure the plane is north of the core heading north east. I think they might’ve missed. I’m going to bed.

You are correct. Still too close to Cuba.

[tropicwatch]

And who is our current Secretary of State

[Chris90]

I wouldn't look at Michael's intensification rate and assume that is the ceiling, Michael did not intensify at the rate other storms have. Wilma dropped from 982mb to 882mb, a 100mb drop, in 30 hours. Maria went from a 75kt Cat 1 to a 145kt Cat 5 in 24 hours. Dennis dropped 11mb in an hour at one point.

Considering how low Idalia's pressure already is, if she manages to build a tight, small core she could explosively intensify. I don't think the NHC forecast is too aggressive.

[IcyTundra]

If I’m correct, Michael had far more time to strengthen as it went through the gulf then idalia will.

This made me do a little research. It lead to me realizing how aggressive the intensity forecast is with Idalia.

Oct 8 11am est Michael became a hurricane.
Oct 10 12:30pm Michael made landfall as a cat 5

49.5 hours.

Let's assume
Aug 29 5am est Idalia becomes a hurricane
Aug 30 7am est Idalia makes landfall

26 hours.

26 hours after Michael became a hurricane, he hadn't quite reached cat 3. Michael is known for rapid intensification, and Idalia is forecasted to intensify even more quickly. This really goes to show how aggressive the intensity forecast is.

Edit: if recon finds a hurricane right now, it's still hard to think any more than cat 3 could happen. It would have to be historic.

Exactly, that's why I'm going with a Cat 2 at landfall. Splitting the difference between what the NHC is saying and what the Models(GFS/EURO) is saying. I think Cat 3 is too high, but hey I could be wrong.

Don't rely too much on the global models for intensity forecasts especially the Euro.

[IcyTundra]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.

Don't underestimate the gulf.

[PavelGaborik10]

I think some people may end up very surprised come this time tomorrow night/early Weds morning regarding the intensity.

If the low shear forecast verifies, this thing is going to have 30+ hours of bathwater in a very favorable environment at peak hurricane season.

125+ MPH is certainly not off the table at this point, of course that will depend on how quickly she can organize her core, the pressure is already a strong indicator that her ceiling is sky high in regards to peak intensity.

[IcyTundra]

I think some people may end up very surprised come this time tomorrow night/early Weds morning regarding the intensity.

If the low shear forecast verifies, this thing is going to have 30+ hours of bathwater in a very favorable environment at peak hurricane season.

125+ MPH is certainly not off the table at this point, of course that will depend on how quickly she can organize her core, the pressure is already a strong indicator that her ceiling is sky high in regards to peak intensity.

I agree 30 hours is more than enough time to ramp up. Over the years I've learned to never underestimate these storms we've all seen how quickly these systems can rapidly intensify.

[ElectricStorm]

Still some shear affecting it but it isn't nearly as much as 24 hours ago. Also way less shear in the gulf compared to last night.


I think we'll see some slight strengthening over the next 12-18 hours or so while it works on building an inner core but after that it should ramp up into a major before landfall.

Would not be surprised to see a 115kt+ landfall unfortunately

[Teban54]

While the situation is already serious enough, I think we should be glad that the shear affecting Idalia the last few days ensured it wasn't even worse.

For the past 2 days, Idalia had been sitting in NW Caribbean with some of the highest OHC in the entire basin, and it had made several attempts to build an inner core at the earliest possibility only to be disrupted by shear. If the shear wasn't there, we could have easily been looking at a hurricane or even a major exiting the Yucatan right now.

Sadly, what played out was still worse than initial model predictions back when it was so an invest, when it was expected to stall over Mexico instead of over water, limiting its intensity ceiling to a Cat 1.

[Ianswfl]

No one is talking about the support for Idalia to do an Ivan and loop around. Canadian, GFS show it, Euro, GFS, and CMC ensembles as well. Pretty good agreement here. Goes into South FL.

[REDHurricane]

Part of me is glad for the shear, because it halted idalia strengthening, and likely prevented it from becoming a monster, but the other part of me is mad at the shear because I wanted to see her become a monster.

That's the problem with having a fascination with weather. There's something about the power of a huge system that words can't describe. But you also have the remember, that monster is going to destroy someone's property, life, everything they know. Respect the weather and admire the beauty but don't wish for it

Obviously no one should wish for any storm to negatively impact others' lives, but the reality is that the weather is going to happen regardless of anything that any person thinks, says, or does, and so at least on a personal level I try not to worry about the "morality" of being a weather enthusiast. The most important thing either way is to effectively inform and warn the general public about how they can expect the weather to impact their particular area, so simply by discussing and learning about weather on here we're doing more good than harm