From Rob Lightbown, of Crown Weather Services:
Invest 95-L Is Likely To Become A Significant Hurricane As It Heads For The Area Near The Northeastern Caribbean By This Weekend But Should Stay Just Barely North Of The Islands
As of 2 PM - Invest9 95-L is approximately 1,963 miles east southeast of St. Maarten (GREEN DOT). Our Chief Meteorologist, Rob Lightbown, of Crown Weather Services, AT THIS POINT, believes this system will pass to the north of St. Maarten, JUST BARELY Saturday into Sunday.
The Island 92 Weather Team is monitoring this system and will keep everyone posted. Read below for more details.
https://post.futurimedia.com/pjil/playl ... -5851.html(Click the link above to hear the 5 PM on air update)
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Invest 95-L Located Over The East-Central Tropical Atlantic: It appears that Invest 95-L continues to become better organized today with some banding noted and a low-level center that seems to be gradually becoming better defined. Additionally, the convection around Invest 95-L is becoming more organized. All indications seem to point towards this system becoming a tropical depression probably by Tuesday, a tropical storm (its name will be Lee) by about Wednesday, a hurricane by about Friday or so and a major hurricane by this weekend. The combination of low wind shear values, plenty of moisture and very warm ocean water temperatures are going to lead to this system to eventually become a very formidable hurricane.
Track Forecast For The Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico: The immediate concern in terms of impacts from this system are for the islands in the northeastern Caribbean. All of the model guidance seems to suggest now that future Lee will pass to the north of the northeastern Caribbean and not be a direct hit. That said, the distance from the islands is probably going to be way too close for comfort and with this system expected to be a very powerful hurricane at that point, we need to be prepared in case the tracks shift to the south.
One concern I do have when it comes to the future track of Invest 95-L are the differences in the steering winds between a weak system and a really strong system. The lower and middle level winds show a southeast to northwest wind flow right over the eastern Caribbean which would easily turn a Category 1 or 2 hurricane before it reaches the islands leading to no impact. It’s the upper level winds that are a little more concerning as they seem to be pointed more towards a east-southeast to west-northwest direction, which could cause a hurricane of Category 4 or more strength to pass extremely close to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
My take as of right now is that this system should probably miss the islands of the northeastern Caribbean, but it’s going to be really, really close. I would put the distance that the eye of future Lee will pass to the north of the northernmost Leeward Islands at about 100-150 miles or so. This means that the future hurricane will probably still be close enough to bring tropical storm conditions and periods of heavy rainfall to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday into Sunday.
Track Forecast As It Pertains To The Bahamas, The US East Coast & Atlantic Canada: It appears that an upper level trough of low pressure may set up again across the eastern United States by early next week. This could lead to the trough turning this system to the north well before reaching the US East Coast. The European model is the most aggressive in showing this turn leading to a potential big threat to Bermuda.
Other model guidance such as the GFS model show the upper level trough orienting itself in a way to draw future Lee further west with threats to New England and Atlantic Canada.
I want to point out that any “guaranteed” forecast of this system not being a threat to anyone or a “guaranteed” forecast of it being a threat/hit to some part of the US East Coast or Atlantic Canada should not be believed at all. We are talking about a forecast that’s still 10-plus days away and a lot can change in the weather pattern between now and then.
Any model guidance forecast for an upper-level weather pattern for a week away is not set in stone. Some things in the weather pattern that we’re going to have to watch include part of that eastern US trough cutting off this weekend into next week and a stronger than forecast over Atlantic Canada. Should this occur, it would block future Lee from heading out into the North Atlantic.
I wouldn't trust any model forecast on the location and strength of Invest 95-L this far out. I also wouldn't trust any model forecast with the placement and orientation of troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressures this far out. Low pressure troughs can be lures as well as deflectors of tropical systems, depending on their strength and location.
For now though, I think that a majority of, if not all of the East Coast of the United States, as well as all of the Bahamas should be safe from a direct hit from future Lee. Although, huge surf with a very significant threat for rip currents will likely be a threat once we get into next week and next weekend.
I do think that Bermuda, far eastern New England (Cape Cod, Nantucket & coastal Maine) and Atlantic Canada may really need to watch the progress of this system as it could be a very serious threat to you, first for Bermuda around the middle part of next week and then possibly Atlantic Canada and parts of far eastern New England late next week and next weekend (September 15-17 period).
. Posted it with Larry and Sam, here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).
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