ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

I have a feeling that we’re going to end up with idalia having the pressure of a mid to high category four, but the wind speeds of a high three or low four because the winds won’t have enough time to catch up before landfall.

[AJC3]

Eric Burris (Remember his name because he has been calling this since yesterday.)

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696480931358310435

Anyone have the tech savvy to plot the recon center fixes on top of the corresponding Key West Radar imagery (with both geolocated for accuracy)? The beam height out at that distance is >25kft, and there could still be a small amount of eastward tilt with height.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hopefully this thing is organizing more slowly than we think. Let’s pray for a below major hurricane landfall.

[NDG]

I have a feeling that we’re going to end up with idalia having the pressure of a mid to high category four, but the wind speeds of a high three or low four because the winds won’t have enough time to catch up before landfall.

Keep in mind that Idalia comes from a monsoonal trough so surrounding environmental pressures were already well below average, so its pressure is more of what you find in the W PAC systems.

[caneman]

Using radar loops it looks pretty much due North to me. Maybe a slight east jog but I'm not convinced it wasn't just a wobble yet. It's gonna wobble around a bit while it's getting its core together. A long ways to go but I don't see this becoming significantly east of the NHCs track.

Also, never use satellite to determine track when you have radar available. It can be very misleading. And look at overall motion over an extended period not every wobble.

I remember in 2020 NHC had hurricane Isaias coming in around the SC/NC border. All you saw on twitter was these wobble watchers proclaiming it was going to go way east potentially to Jacksonville NC. Well, that didn't happen. This is obviously a completely different situation just saying the NHC is the best in the game always go with them first.

This is just my opinion though.

It isnt really surprising. Euro ensembles predicted a further right track with a higher intensity storm. So the wobble in fact could be a more slight east motion. That can mean all the difference for Tampa Bay wind and surge wise.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dropsonde 84kts at 925mb...that's about 2000 feet (1995 ft)

[SFLcane]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

[Kingarabian]

Running about 10mb lower and 10kts higher winds vs Dvorak estimates.

[Extratropical94]

00979 23512

979 mb 12 kt center splash, pressure pretty much unchanged from last pass

[USTropics]

Eric Burris (Remember his name because he has been calling this since yesterday.)

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696480931358310435

Anyone have the tech savvy to plot the recon center fixes on top of the corresponding Key West Radar imagery (with both geolocated for accuracy)? The beam height out at that distance is >25kft, and there could still be a small amount of eastward tilt with height.

You can kind of do this with Cesium at TropicalAtlantic (http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... ing=cesium), just turn on the two radar layers:

[jlauderdal]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qkNPGy6/IMG-7531.jpg

recon has it east of the track

[NDG]

Eric Burris (Remember his name because he has been calling this since yesterday.)

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1696480931358310435

Anyone have the tech savvy to plot the recon center fixes on top of the corresponding Key West Radar imagery (with both geolocated for accuracy)? The beam height out at that distance is >25kft, and there could still be a small amount of eastward tilt with height.

I have the cross hair at 23.95N 84.75W where the recon's extrap found the lowest pressure.

[caneman]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qkNPGy6/IMG-7531.jpg

It's verified east of track already .3 from the 5 am update

[tolakram]

How many gulf landfalling storms have been underestimated in the last 5 years? I read some overnight posts once again thinking this won't be as strong as forecast. Fortunately I think most people on here are taking this storm very seriously, especially after last year. We can always hope Idalia will end the trend of hurricanes strengthening all the way until landfall, but I would not bet on it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

MESOCYCLONE INDICATED ON RADAR - 360 / 10NM FROM CTR

What does that mean?

[Teban54]

So since the two passes had the same pressure and somewhat similar spread of wind field, what exactly was Idalia doing between the passes? Not that I'm impatient...

[jlauderdal]

No way Idalia is moving straight due north this morning. I wouldn't rule out landfall closer to Cedar Key than shown by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/LBxCqTR.gif

It’s right on the nhc track convection can be deceiving.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qkNPGy6/IMG-7531.jpg

It's verified east of track already .3 from the 5 am update

SFlcane knows his stuff; he gets a mulligan on this one. I have had plenty of mulligans and tabasco sauce with all the crow over the years, it happens....

[Extratropical94]

MESOCYCLONE INDICATED ON RADAR - 360 / 10NM FROM CTR

What does that mean?

They noticed a rotating supercell 10 nautical miles north of Idalia's center on their radar. A good indicator that Idalia's circulation is capable of spawning tornadoes

[AJC3]

MESOCYCLONE INDICATED ON RADAR - 360 / 10NM FROM CTR

What does that mean?

Basically it's a rotating supercell thunderstorm embedded in the eyewall. Happens somewhat often in strong/RI-ing hurricanes.

[GCANE]

Latest center fix from Miss Piggy
Moving due north.
Still 14 miles east of forecast track