ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

[Steve]

Anyone know what is to be expected weather wise for the Bradenton and St Pete area based off how the storm is moving/tracking?

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... t=27.49995

That's a little bit off the coast which obviously the closer one is to the coast, the higher the winds are likely to be. Main thing to look out for in my opinion would be outer band tornadoes and feeder bands that probably set up NW-SE (or NNW-SSE) across the Peninsula. Could be some deluges. Could also be mostly offshore if it stays far enough out before fading NNE/NE.

[Iceresistance]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

You spelled Dunedin correctly, it's on the northern fringe of the Tampa Bay Metro.

May miss them to the west, but possible TS winds and a lot of rain, plus the possibility of tornadoes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Steve]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

TS conditions tonight and tomorrow per the TB NWS office (possibly H conditions, but that remains to be seen). They're usually pretty good.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... 8999999998

[underthwx]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

You spelled Dunedin correctly, it's on the northern fringe of the Tampa Bay Metro.

May miss them to the west, but possible TS winds and a lot of rain, plus the possibility of tornadoes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Thanks Ice....

[Highteeld]

Idalia might bomb like Michael did in 2018. All of the models will miss it too. Starting to get very concerned.

[GCANE]

Couple towers now rotating on the eyewall

[Iceresistance]

Lowest Extrapolated at 973.6, and there is a strong pressure gradient.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg89L.png

[MetroMike]

Got an interesting Radar view from Key West

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

Hope it stays online, now its blanking out smh

[GCANE]

If RI is truly starting, it may continue to 26.5N, the top of the CAPE ridge.

[Highteeld]

Shear conditions improve tonight. This could be a major, major problem. ERI is possible in these kind of set ups.

[Recurve]

Here in St. Petersburg, we've held off on putting up shutters. The remarkably consistent track forecasts have me feeling confident -- at 10:30 am Tuesday -- of not getting hurricane-force winds from Idalia tonight. HOWEVER, I urge anyone along the coast of Pinellas County and points north to Tallahassee -- to heed any evac orders. Storm surge is a killer, kids.

Looks like center will be anywhere from 60 nm to 100+ nm west of the St. Pete area. Obviously on the dirty side and there are bound to be some hellacious rain and gusts late tonight. Stay safe all.

I'm eager to see 11 am forecast. I don't expect much to change, but with the environmental conditions and potential for catastrophic flooding and wind somewhere in the Big Bend area, I wouldn't be surprised to see an intensity forecast increase. But then the modeling has gotten so good, even with notoriously tricky intensity forecasting, that what NHC has been saying all along, Cat 3, will likely hold. That will be bad enough for the landfall around and just south.

Disclaimer: Not a met or expert! Don't take my advice!

[Iceresistance]

Latest VDM confirms a NNW jog, and the eye got smaller, but not pinhole.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/13:30:53Z
B. 24.29 deg N 084.85 deg W
C. 700 MB 2931 m
D. 978 mb
E. 310 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 45 kt
I. 217 deg 9 nm 13:28:40Z
J. 317 deg 51 kt
K. 222 deg 13 nm 13:27:46Z
L. 70 kt
M. 055 deg 15 nm 13:34:45Z
N. 163 deg 71 kt
O. 056 deg 20 nm 13:35:59Z
P. 12 C / 3059 m
Q. 17 C / 3064 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA3 1010A IDALIA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 056 / 20 NM 13:35:59Z

[weatherSnoop]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

You spelled Dunedin correctly, it's on the northern fringe of the Tampa Bay Metro.

May miss them to the west, but possible TS winds and a lot of rain, plus the possibility of tornadoes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget a dangerous surge!

[NAVAIDNICK]

Anyone know what is to be expected weather wise for the Bradenton and St Pete area based off how the storm is moving/tracking?

Go to the NWS Tampa website and put in your zip code. That will tell you everything you need to know about the forecasted conditions in your area. While there are some meteorologists in this forum, they aren't here to give customized forecasts.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[robbielyn]

I seem to recall a pro saying before to follow the storm’s thicker outer bands to have a general idea on short term direction. In this case the large bands are mostly on the north with some smaller eastern bands. Does anyone else remember this?

I dont remember a pro met saying it but for Charley I remember Nexrad saying it and he could predict these incoming close storms with the ruc2. I wonder how he is doing and where he is at?

[Iceresistance]

Had me an appointment at the VA this morning, while waiting, I was talking to a buddy of mine, who has family in Dunedin, hope I spelled correctly. He was wondering about what conditions are expected there, timing, that sort of thing Be safe everyone...

You spelled Dunedin correctly, it's on the northern fringe of the Tampa Bay Metro.

May miss them to the west, but possible TS winds and a lot of rain, plus the possibility of tornadoes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget a dangerous surge!

Sorry, I forgot that part.

[aspen]

Latest VDM confirms a NNW jog, and the eye got smaller, but not pinhole.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/13:30:53Z
B. 24.29 deg N 084.85 deg W
C. 700 MB 2931 m
D. 978 mb
E. 310 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 45 kt
I. 217 deg 9 nm 13:28:40Z
J. 317 deg 51 kt
K. 222 deg 13 nm 13:27:46Z
L. 70 kt
M. 055 deg 15 nm 13:34:45Z
N. 163 deg 71 kt
O. 056 deg 20 nm 13:35:59Z
P. 12 C / 3059 m
Q. 17 C / 3064 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA3 1010A IDALIA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 056 / 20 NM 13:35:59Z

It’s finally close now, which is backed up by the new eyewall convection seen on visible satellite imagery. One of the earlier VDMs reported a spiral structure.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The eyewall is looking healthier on radar, and it’s also getting those meso gotta starting to spin up inside it. I only see one as of now but the storm is intensifying, and quite rapidly at that.