ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Welcome to the first day of Hurricane Season, 91L looking better than I had thought this morning.
Good chance that the recon will find at least a TD this afternoon if storms maintain during the day.

[NDG]

Up to 50% this morning.

BNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[NDG]

[caneman]

We may get a very brief spin up to kick the season off.

[cycloneye]

Effects from this disturbance in South Florida this weekend.

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1664245221880922118

[tronbunny]

I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.

Up to 50% this morning.

BNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30kt and pressure down to 1007 mbs.

AL, 91, 2023060112, , BEST, 0, 279N, 864W, 30, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1664253654713466880

[HurricaneBelle]

I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.

It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.

[ChrisH-UK]

GOES-16 red band loop shows a lot of convection happening and with the rotation now been firmly underneath the convection the rotation is now imparting rotation on to the convective clouds. The models are looking like it will head south over warm waters I think it will improve

Source - https://col.st/YIzrg

[Buck]

Vacationing with family in Fort Morgan, AL right now so I’m basically looking at this from our porch. Happy first day of the season everyone! Would be kinda nice to have Arlene appear on June 1.

[ronjon]

If the LLC is tucked under the deep convection I believe we have TD 1. Banding features, deep convection, and pressure down to 1007 mb would meet the criteria.

[jfk08c]

GOES-16 red band loop shows a lot of convection happening and with the rotation now been firmly underneath the convection the rotation is now imparting rotation on to the convective clouds. The models are looking like it will head south over warm waters I think it will improve

Source - https://col.st/YIzrg

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7124/U9mHkO.gif [/url]

I think the only reason it's starting to pop is that it found the only pocket of low shear in the Gulf. If it moves south out of it, it will probably deteriorate pretty quickly as it enters the sheared environment again

[AnnularCane]

I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.

It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.

Another wrong-way storm?

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's a radar loop out of Elgin AFB you can see the rotation but still no organised structure.

[tronbunny]

We will have no storm before it's time.

I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.

It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.

Another wrong-way storm?

[lrak]

Sunday surf machine for S TX

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1664241127963365381

[boca]

I’d like to know what is pushing eventually south? Is it high pressure pushing down on it or just weak steering currents.

[Cat5James]

I’d like to know what is pushing eventually south? Is it high pressure pushing down on it or just weak steering currents.

I've also been wondering this