ATL: IDALIA - Models

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro loop, Tampa area and West-Central Florida on the dirty side, landfall around Cedar Key / Big Bend:

[Nimbus]

The reason the 12Z GFS is tracking further west and stronger is that the trough erodes and splits this run at about 90 hours. That (would mean) less shear and a dangerous storm at landfall.
You can see the trough at 90 hours here:



And at hour 96 you can see where the low has cut off and is rolling west into Mexico ventilating the system.



It is only one possible scenario but the surface low hasn't migrated north as fast as was first thought and is forming pretty far south just off Belize so I favor the slower forecast ATM. The weaker members of the ECM were probably responding to and being sheared by the trough earlier so hope for that to dig and prepare anyways.

[MississippiWx]

Gotta like the Euro's consistency. Hard to go against it.

[chris_fit]

Another classic GFS vs EURO.

GFS = W
EURO = E
(which is weird in itself, as the opposite are typically their biases. They were like this with Ian too.)

So far, Euro is 1-0 in actually forecasting this to develop (assuming it actually does now.)

[BobHarlem]

12z UKMet (New Port RIchey to Hernando Beach)

[wxman57]

12Z EC track into northern Peninsula as 992mb TS. Could move inland farther NW. EC is the farthest east.

[Stormlover1970]

12Z EC track into northern Peninsula as 992mb TS. Could move inland farther NW. EC is the farthest east.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZEC.JPG

its very hard for my area to get hit from the gulf in New port richey either way still on the dirty side

[lsuhurricane]

Slightly west compared to prior runs, but splitting hairs

[caneman]

https://i.ibb.co/G5tDQ1F/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif


Slightly west compared to prior runs, but splitting hairs

Those are too far West. Looks like most have it at 87 while NHC has it around 85.5

[hurricane2025]

Still need a center

[PavelGaborik10]

Quite a few Ensembles going a fair bit W there.

[ronjon]

Remember how stubbornly far west GFS was with IAN less than 48 hrs to landfall. Had it consistently hitting the FL panhandle. I will never forget how that skewed the consensus track further north along the FL west coast. Ukmet had it ultimately nailed but Euro wasn't far off with sarasota-Ft Myers landfall. I have become deeply skeptical of GFS based on that history.

[NDG]

This is the set up when a storm moves parallel to the southerly windshear which they strengthen more than forecasted. 36-48 hrs over the GOM is more than enough time to strengthen into at least a Cat 1.
12z Euro forecasts less than 10 knots of windshear over it.

[gatorcane]

SHIPS getting closer to CAT 2 on the 18Z:

[tolakram]

Euro landfall. I'll also update my 12Z post previously with this frame.

[Spacecoast]

Multi-models + ens mean(s):

[gatorcane]

18Z Happy Hour GFS starts in 10 min. Should be interesting what it outputs this time considering 24 hours ago it had nothing and the 12Z had a CAT 2. Perhaps it is now overdoing things but we shall see.

[Ianswfl]

ICON way back east. Landfall around Sarasota!