ATL: MARGOT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WalterWhite]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern Atlantic, which are beginning to spread over the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while moving toward the west-northwest at about
15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The low is
expected to move across the Cabo Verde Islands overnight and early
Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

NHC probably saw the increased model support and decided to up the chances of development again.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1699554474719846554

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1699607002652266800

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3350/pHIbz9.gif

2-day formation chance at 40%

[ElectricStorm]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves toward
the west-northwest at about 15 mph. Heavy rains and gusty winds
associated with this system are now occurring over the Cabo Verde
Islands, and these conditions are expected to continue during the
next several hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[aspen]

Dang this put itself together fast overnight. If this continues, we should have TD14 or TS Margot sometime today.

[LemieT]

Dang this put itself together fast overnight. If this continues, we should have TD14 or TS Margot sometime today.

I woke up, looked at the satellite and fully expected to see the NHC website saying TS Margot. Oh well...

[kevin]

Looks like a TD already imo, will probably get classified at 11am if it keeps this up.

[weeniepatrol]

[Beef Stew]

Can't imagine this won't be designated as at least a TD in the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while the disturbance moves toward the west-northwest at about 15
mph. Heavy rain and gusty winds associated with this system are
now occurring over the Cabo Verde Islands, and these conditions are
expected to continue during the next several hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Up to TD.

AL, 96, 2023090712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 257W, 30, 1005, TD

[Subtrop]

AL, 14, 2023090712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 257W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB62023 to al142023,

[wxman57]

Note that it's not officially "Fourteen" yet. Quite possible the NHC will call it TS Margot within the next 30 min.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[wxman57]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

Yep, that popped up right after my post. I've been refreshing their page.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

First forecast has 80kts in 5 days

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.