ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

5% tor area added for NC tomorrow

[Vdogg]

HWRF appears to take this to low level hurricane immediately before landfall Saturday morning. How likely is that to verify?

[Steve]

This system has the potential to bring me my first sub 70 low of the fall season and a couple days of low humidity. I'm excited.

Good luck. I just spent a week in Black Mountain, and the lows ranged from like 49-60. Needless to say it's like 90 in New Orleans today for the high. Back in the "good old days" you could sometimes time fall by the arrival of fronts on the 21st. Ain't the case this year regardless of what happens in the near future.

This is opposite surge of Idalia and is one of those situations where the water piles up first and then blows offshore after the center lifts past x latitude on the coast. The hedge is if it lifts inland into NC/VA, then there will still be feed moisture to the east. Fortunately this isn't a mature 3/4/5 coming up and will hopefully end up only being an inconvenience for most folks not in the low-lying areas and barrier islands.

[Steve]

HWRF appears to take this to low level hurricane immediately before landfall Saturday morning. How likely is that to verify?

It is known to overestimate strength sometimes. We're only a couple days away, so see what it does next run. I feel like low-end Cat 1 is the ceiling* though 2 more days would have probably gotten it to a strong 2.

* Range looks to be 50mph-80mph to me but probably 55-65 ends up most likely.

[wxman57]

I notice that the NHC has TS winds extending out to 470 miles NE of the center prior to landfall. That doesn't seem tropical at all. Models indicate a frontal low at landfall. NHC folks feel the best way to get people prepared is to call it a TS.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1704926058439487534

[ScottNAtlanta]

Norfolk tends to flood even when the lunar tides are higher, so any water piling up will cause flooding there

[Sciencerocks]

[WalterWhite]

From the latest advisory:

This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall.

The NHC thinks this system has a decent chance of being a subtropical cyclone, rather than a tropical cyclone. However, the official forecast calls for a fully tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

From the latest advisory:

This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall.

The NHC thinks this system has a decent chance of being a subtropical cyclone, rather than a tropical cyclone. However, the official forecast calls for a fully tropical cyclone.

Yes, it looks more like a frontal low than a tropical low (TS wind out to 470 miles!), but the NHC is intent on naming it to keep coastal residents safe.

[WalterWhite]

From the latest advisory:

This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall.

The NHC thinks this system has a decent chance of being a subtropical cyclone, rather than a tropical cyclone. However, the official forecast calls for a fully tropical cyclone.

Yes, it looks more like a frontal low than a tropical low (TS wind out to 470 miles!), but the NHC is intent on naming it to keep coastal residents safe.

I interpreted that quote as "the ECMWF forecast suggests that the system will retain at least some [extratropical] cyclone characteristics" (meaning the ECMWF thinks AL16 will become a subtropical cyclone), as extratropical and frontal cyclones mean the same thing.

Also, what difference would it make if the NHC called this a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone? The NHC names both.

[xironman]

The visible looks like it is very slowly stacking up.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on the system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DAKS9dZlSU

[ouragans]

1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 22/1730Z A. 23/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0116A INVEST B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 22/1450Z C. 23/0245Z
D. 32.5N 75.5W D. 34.2N 76.1W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2330Z E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST G. FIX

[NC George]

Game on. NHC track puts the center almost right on my house. I live in an area more inland that isn't really a threat to flood unless it is a Florence type system but down east Carteret county where I grew up is very low land for the most part. Wouldn't surpise me if a couple of the homes in the lowest areas come real close to taking in water. This is the kind of track you don't want to see if you live down there. Very good track for pushing up that water.

I'm on the line, too, in Washington, NC. We got a storm surge Emergency Alert on my phone at 5, the path is perfect to push water up the sounds. Wonder if they are going to cancel the ECU football game tomorrow, as the center is supposed to be within 20 miles of the stadium a couple of hours before game time.

[Sciencerocks]

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Game on. NHC track puts the center almost right on my house. I live in an area more inland that isn't really a threat to flood unless it is a Florence type system but down east Carteret county where I grew up is very low land for the most part. Wouldn't surpise me if a couple of the homes in the lowest areas come real close to taking in water. This is the kind of track you don't want to see if you live down there. Very good track for pushing up that water.

I'm on the line, too, in Washington, NC. We got a storm surge Emergency Alert on my phone at 5, the path is perfect to push water up the sounds. Wonder if they are going to cancel the ECU football game tomorrow, as the center is supposed to be within 20 miles of the stadium a couple of hours before game time.

Only if there is lightning.

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

AL, 16, 2023092200, , BEST, 0, 295N, 753W, 35, 1008, EX, 34, NEQ, 210, 0, 0, 180, 1012, 160, 150, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1705024553666175473