EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[ThunderForce]

This is absolutely horrible... Praying that things won't be as bad as expected...

[ksgWXfan]

36 hour at-a-glance:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/adv/ep182023_info_202310232347.xml
10-24 00Z - 45kts, 1000mb
(Fwiw, best track said 50, 999)

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/adv/ep182023_info_202310250556.xml
10-25 06Z - 145kts, 923mb

[ThunderForce]

Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near
Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the
minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis
is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.

SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8 99.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

[doomhaMwx]

Probably made landfall now based on the eye starting to fill in and given that the view from GOES-16 is shifted westward due to parallax effect.

[CrazyC83]

Probably made landfall now based on the eye starting to fill in and given that the view from GOES-16 is shifted westward due to parallax effect.

https://i.imgur.com/lhtYt6H.gif

I agree - and I'd put the landfall point at Punta Diamante (16.8N 99.8W). We'll see what observations we can get.

Weakening should be VERY fast as mountains lie ahead. This isn't like a storm moving across Florida.

[bob rulz]

Wow, what an absolutely awful situation. I wasn't even really keeping track of storms the last couple of weeks, but I checked NHC a couple of hours ago and I couldn't believe what I was seeing.

[Astromanía]

This is something historic and tragic

[Hurricane Mike]

Hurricane Otis is the strongest hurricane to strike the Pacific coastline of Mexico on record, and the only one to make landfall at Category 5 intensity.

[Astromanía]

Hurricane Otis is the strongest hurricane to strike the Pacific coastline of Mexico on record, and the only one to make landfall at Category 5 intensity.

https://i.ibb.co/w6TsLpg/Snapshot-231025025233.png

The most crazy thing is that two hurricanes from this season appears in that list

[Astromanía]

https://twitter.com/ar2_mx/status/17170 ... ptddQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/fdiaz2050/status/17 ... G4_-A&s=19
https://twitter.com/apocalipticmx/statu ... cQo-w&s=19

[hurricanes1234]

And as if 165 mph winds weren't enough of a threat, extreme amounts of lightning are also present inside the core of Otis.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1717073688980316452

[Astromanía]

This is just bizarre

[ksgWXfan]

10-25 6Z Best Track Data (https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep182023.dat):

EP, 18, 2023102506, , BEST, 0, 167N, 999W, 145, 923, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 60, 1008, 110, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OTIS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 18, 2023102506, , BEST, 0, 167N, 999W, 145, 923, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 30, 1008, 110, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OTIS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 18, 2023102506, , BEST, 0, 167N, 999W, 145, 923, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1008, 110, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OTIS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

Quadrant wind extent data (4 columns next to 'NEQ') implies Hurricane-force winds go from 145kts to 65kts in just over a ~20nmi (25mi) radius, with TS-force winds only extending ~60nmi (70mi). Hopefully the seemingly compact wind extents act to somewhat localize the worst damage (at least from wind)

[CrazyC83]

Based on the preliminary data, I think the intensity at landfall was 140 kt (pressure 926 mb). Pressure data received may adjust that.

However, at 0400Z, I think it peaked at 150 kt (pressure 918 mb). That's about when satellite looked most impressive.

[canebeard]

Based on google earth grids and the NHC advisory positions, the NE eyewall went over Acapulco, and maybe a little of the eastern edge of the eye, Several possible "good" things for Acapulco is that the winds almost until landfall were blowing offshore, from the NE, but then directly onshore after the eye came ashore. The fact that the cat 5 winds only had 6-8 hours to push the water ahead of if it, not like Andrew who had been pushing the water ahead of it for many hundreds of miles before landfall. Also, the elevations very close to shore, like within a block of Acapulco, ranges from 17 ft above sea level to 30-50 ft asl. Those who lived in wooden structures should feel blessed if they are still standing.

[dexterlabio]

Totally crazy that a day ago or two this was only expected to peak as 45kt TS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's really fascinating seeing people discussing how this got as strong as it did and nobody having any concrete answers for why. Otis will probably be studied for years and hopefully out of that we'll understand the least understood part of hurricanes which is intensity forecasts.

I still can't believe what happened actually happened. Like my jaws on the floor at this. All of our computer models and our entire meteorological knowledge was useless in forecasting what happened.

[Bocadude85]

Just unbelievable what has happened tonight! It’s insane for a locations hurricane history to change so radically.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://twitter.com/LugarIncorrecto/status/1717099221307031564




 https://twitter.com/srcarlostochtli/status/1717106119620083802