ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Son lives in Indian Shores where the elevation is 9.2.
NHC is projecting 4-7ft surge in that area but it may coincide with a "king tide".

Question is does the NHC take that into account? If not, should he expect higher than 7ft?

I live very near there off a finger on the intercoastal. Saw one dock washed over already and just 1 ft. From the seawall. That is just mostly from King High tide too.

He sandbagged and also moved truck to higher ground (just in case).

thanks to all for responses!

[ElectricStorm]

Dry slot is trying hard to reach the core but so far it hasn't made it there. Need to see if that continues. That's probably the only thing that can hold it back between now and landfall, but only if it reaches the core

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/mPEeoMP_tLM[/youtube]

[MetroMike]

A bit surprised the SPC has not issued a MD for a possible tornado watch for South Florida yet.
A little trigger shy as bands are coming up from the south already.

[Category5Kaiju]

The storm isn’t looking as healthy on radar or satellite. This is good.

Are we sure that it's not just a part of it intensifying and getting its act together though?

In other words, would whatever you're seeing there really make that much difference on Idalia's future? Or is it just a microtrend? I think those will be important to consider.

[cheezyWXguy]

The storm isn’t looking as healthy on radar or satellite. This is good.

Are we sure that it's not just a part of it intensifying and getting its act together though?

It took a quick hit of dry air, but radar shows this is in the final stages of mixing out. Given the new bursts on the west side, I suspect the show is about to begin.

[Sanibel]

That dry air in the West Gulf could be keeping the Gulf Stream boost down...

[GCANE]

A bit surprised the SPC has not issued a MD for a possible tornado watch for South Florida yet.
A little trigger shy as bands are coming up from the south already.

I've been watching it closely and not seeing any STP signatures in any of the convection.

[cycloneye]

A landfalling major hurricane has never has happened in that area before.

 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1696544257451216896

[ScottNAtlanta]

The long wave IR satellite view is showing the black ring of very cold convection has finally closed off the center. It's very thin on the west side but it has wrapped all the way around
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[InfernoFlameCat]

The storm did ingest some dry air. But new hot towers did just fire on the west side; she heard what I said.

[GCANE]

There is some convection on the SW quad firing up at 23.9N 86.9W
Could be an indication the dry slot, which may be an artifact of the PV streamer, is eroding.
A PV streamer pushes air down from the top of the troposphere so it appears dry on UL WV imagery.

[underthwx]

Part of the 5:10 AM NWS Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion....

"You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the
Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context,
there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back
to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess
around with this."....

[tolakram]

saved loop

[galaxy401]

Hey another parallel to Michael, frequent debates on whether dry air is hampering the storm or not. I remember this similar discussion when Michael was in the Gulf too.

[GCANE]

Either the eye just filled in or went pinhole.

[Highteeld]

Eye popping out

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/odsOAJX2cHU[/youtube]

[Highteeld]

The shear has obviously relaxed a lot -- the structure says it all. This hurricane will be one for the record books, and the name "Idalia" will likely be retired. Man, this is bad.

[Sciencerocks]