ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

Looking to be nearly a statewide even with that huge band raking the west coast. It's even quite breezy here in juno Beach this afternoon with low level clouds circulating. Hope folks in N. FL take it seriously.

[USTropics]

CyclonicWX Recon data says that AF304 is in the GoM

I believe AF304 had issues, stopped reporting data around 1PM.

[USTropics]

Does this portend an earlier turn to the east?

A stronger trough over the NW GOM would usher a quicker moving Idala, not so much the turn to the east. What sets the turn to the east is the western periphery of this ridge (roughly traced in pink). The edge will be set by the trough over the NE United States:
https://i.imgur.com/DnKbRmv.png

In Levi's video earlier, he was saying that the ridge was a little west of where they had expected it (ie strong ridge).

Yes, and it trended even stronger on 12z, with the nose of the ridge extending as far west as 86.5:

[toad strangler]

Great region wide radar shots!

[dukeblue219]

Recon schedules are posted well in advance, folks.
Current day:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml
Tomorrow:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Decoder:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutreconpod.shtml

The flight getting ready for takeoff was scheduled to begin fixes around 430pm EDT and it should still be pretty close to that.

[ColdMiser123]

A second rotating hot tower has just sprung up on the northeast part of the core, in addition to the one rotating to the southwest. Would be surprised if this wasn't intensifying at a sizable rate now.

[chaser1]

Fun Fact: Idalia is the name that replaced Irma on the hurricane name list. If this storm does what it is forecast to do, it might well be retired too.

Oh, I think you can pretty much bank on the name Idalia being retired.

The more I think of it, I think it's high time that NHC just consider fully retiring the letter "I" from ALL future names

[Iceresistance]

A second rotating hot tower has just sprung up on the northeast part of the core, in addition to the one rotating to the southwest. Would be surprised if this wasn't intensifying at a sizable rate now.

There was another brief burst of lightning on the South Eyewall.

[Michele B]

Looking at satellite, I'm thinking recon is going to find the eye is larger than earlier

Just glanced at the Klystron radar image (I just posted the link above), and the eye looks like it's showing itself significantly (and prominently) now.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1696589764387016714

[Category5Kaiju]

Fun Fact: Idalia is the name that replaced Irma on the hurricane name list. If this storm does what it is forecast to do, it might well be retired too.

Oh, I think you can pretty much bank on the name Idalia being retired.

The more I think of it, I think it's high time that NHC just consider fully retiring the letter "I" from ALL future names

Maybe the NHC has a secret member who is a clairvoyant for every season and knows when the I storm will happen. He/she didn't allow the subtropical storm to be named for that reason

[cycloneye]

Here we go!!. Air Force plane is taxing to then depart.

https://i.imgur.com/donxd8S.png

TT hasn't loaded the other HDOBs yet, the plane is already in the air and on its way to Idalia. Currently at 28.4N 87.2W

Yes. Is having communication problems.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/cYYnlcs.gif

Quite a lot of banding. I think some of the hurricane model runs of an outer eyewall at landfall will verify.

[sittingduck]

based on the radar, looks like sarasota/venice/ft myers gonna get hit harder than tampa, Unless that comes later

Venice here. Other than a little gusty conditions with the first feeder band we have had a nice breeze and steady rainfall. I expect conditions to get worse in the next few hours. Thinking of my friends up in the big bend and eastern panhandle. After Ian I don’t want a major anywhere

[Michele B]

Fun Fact: Idalia is the name that replaced Irma on the hurricane name list. If this storm does what it is forecast to do, it might well be retired too.

Oh, I think you can pretty much bank on the name Idalia being retired.

The more I think of it, I think it's high time that NHC just consider fully retiring the letter "I" from ALL future names

A friend said this to me today. My response was: "Then the **J** names will all become our problem!"

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wonder where Wxman57 has been with this storm. He seems oddly silent. He always has good advice with systems like these.

[lovingseason2013]

Is there somewhere that lists the crew? I met one of the pilots and am curious if it lists the pilots of the aircraft somewhere?

CyclonicWX Recon data says that AF304 is in the GoM

I believe AF304 had issues, stopped reporting data around 1PM.

[Sanibel]

Non event so far here on Sanibel...Just some light wind and bands of heavy rain followed by long lulls...

Only one 6 foot rip in roof apex tarp...Rest held so far...

[chris_fit]

I wonder where Wxman57 has been with this storm. He seems oddly silent. He always has good advice with systems like these.

Yup def miss his participation here.

[Full8s]

A stronger trough over the NW GOM would usher a quicker moving Idala, not so much the turn to the east. What sets the turn to the east is the western periphery of this ridge (roughly traced in pink). The edge will be set by the trough over the NE United States:
https://i.imgur.com/DnKbRmv.png

In Levi's video earlier, he was saying that the ridge was a little west of where they had expected it (ie strong ridge).

Yes, and it trended even stronger on 12z, with the nose of the ridge extending as far west as 86.5:
https://i.imgur.com/8FgEanb.gif

So will that supposedly delay/stymie the eastern drift or turn?