ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Franklin is battling 30 knot easterly shear, which is why you see the convection displaced to the east from the CoC.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sg7Oh.png

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/weatherffolkes/status/1694757288009994485

[canebeard]

#Franklin is strengthening slowly while it remains misaligned due to a large ULAC imparting W'ly shear. This will continue for the next 2 days until a ULL digs in after cutting off from the polar jet. This will ventilate the storm better and eventually create a ULAC for Franklin. pic.twitter.com/RVt28zLSU0
-- WxNate (@weatherffolkes) August

One could amend that to say: "This will ventilate the storm better and help enhance and co-locate the ULAC that Franklin's convection has already started to develop for itself (I.e. built its own hat; which is more ideal for intensification.).

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2023082418, , BEST, 0, 223N, 693W, 50, 998, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

This isn't going to be good for Bermuda as a major hurricane passing just west of the island.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Its only a tropical storm now 29.47 INCHES but after the shear lets up and Franklin makes the turn north towards Bermuda he will quickly intensify. The east northeast distance is somewhat critical since later in the forecast he will be passing just west of the island. Also Franklins track and strength will effect the ridging further west, critical to the gulf storm forecast.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2023082500, , BEST, 0, 225N, 686W, 50, 1000, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[bahamaswx]

Can't believe there's an August storm just north of Hispaniola and heading east.

[Woofde]

Can't believe there's an August storm just north of Hispaniola and heading east.

We also have a CAG going on too!

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A little bit weaker as Recon has not found winds stronger than 45kt.

AL, 08, 2023082512, , BEST, 0, 220N, 680W, 45, 1003, TS

[IsabelaWeather]

Appears on Vis that the center is moving to the ESE, looks like being tugged by the deep convection. This storm is just a struggle bus and a nightmare to forecast.

[ChrisH-UK]

Currently Franklin is in a high shear environment with winds flowing from the Pacific into the Gulf and out east shearing Franklin. Once the system near the Yucatan moves north that wind flow is broken and Franklin should ramp up.

[IsabelaWeather]

I'm very interested to see the upcoming forecast discussion. I doubt the storm can make it too much more south, but based on the GFS shear is a lot less the more south it can get

[Sciencerocks]