ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Idalia will be making landfall at D-Max, no question it will be a solid Cat 3 if not Cat 4 at landfall, just 12 hrs ago it was barely a Cat 1 with a pressure in the high 970s.

[tolakram]

Looking at the longer loop, and in hindsight, this reminds me of Harvey suddenly organizing from a TD to eventually a cat 4. Hopefully it levels off.

[Highteeld]

Undeniable easterly jog last few frames on radar

[jdjaguar]

A pinhole eye of 6 mi across gives it approximately the same eye size as Andrew 1992, Opal 1995, and Dennis 2004.

How fast did those systems deepen, in millibars per hour?

Dennis at one point deepened at 11mb in one hour.

I remember that...it was insane!

[Poonwalker]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

[Ivanhater]

So much for the shear forecast all the way to landfall a couple days ago.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

It's already a high end category 2.

What do you see stopping the current RI over the next 12 hours?

[Highteeld]

Hot tower throwing up coldest convection of the evening so far

[TallyTracker]

Looking at the longer loop, and in hindsight, this reminds me of Harvey suddenly organizing from a TD to eventually a cat 4. Hopefully it levels off.

https://i.imgur.com/AaVm7S3.gif

You can really see the ventilation to the north in that loop. The shear is starting to help Idalia more than hurt it.

[Iceresistance]

I'm thinking a high end category 2 at landfall or low end category 3. Regardless storm surge is still going to be insane due to the speed that Idalia is tracking and how big the winfield is.

It's already a high end category 2.

What do you see stopping the current RI over the next 12 hours?

Nothing other than an EWRC...

[MetroMike]

Tally might be a break if the East wobble continues.

[TallyTracker]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Few were taking it seriously until 11 am this morning when the hurricane warning was issued. That’s when the panic hit. Most people I know are staying. I evacuated to Crestview. I’m extremely worried about Tallahassee.

[Fancy1002]

How often or rare is it for a category two or even a category three to develop a pinhole eye. I was under the assumption that those were almost the exclusive domain of cat four and fives.

[chaser1]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Yeah, i'm getting pretty worried about that possibility. I have very close friends in Crawfordville and I suggested they bug-out out of caution. They have a solid home, generator, etc but... all those trees?! Plus even if unlikely for their location, storm surge could play into things as well.

[fllawyer]

Radar shows some pretty pronounced NE jogs last few frames.

[Poonwalker]

Relatively weak STP now in Tampa Bay and south inland.
Expect this to quickly ramp up with the heavy band coming onshore

It’s been surprisingly mild here in Largo/Seminole. The rain is needed actually

[TallyTracker]

Tallahassee is in trouble. Hope they evacuated. Looks pretty loaded even on the west side.

Yeah, i'm getting pretty worried about that possibility. I have very close friends in Crawfordville and I suggested they bug-out out of caution. They have a solid home, generator, etc but... all those trees?! Plus even if unlikely for their location, storm surge could play into things as well.

Almost all of Wakulla County can go under water in surge. Not necessarily will in this one, but even a portion of Leon County is in a Zone E I believe.

[MJGarrison]

Wobbles certainly, but the path is now projected to be NNE, so nothing surprising. At 8PM we were right on track.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

Radar shows some pretty pronounced NE jogs last few frames.

I'm not seeing any "east" at all right now. A little earlier, sure but it appears to be charging northward to these eyes

[tolakram]