ATL: LEE - Models

[Category5Kaiju]

I was reading through the Sam models thread recently given the number of social media comparisons being presented between this storm and 95L. It's certainly possible that this ends up as a similar strength/track storm compared to Sam. However, one thing to note is that Sam developed earlier (near roughly 33 W) while 95L is more west than that. Additionally, Sam experienced a dramatic slowdown, followed by a turn to the NW and eventually north, and occurred in late September, when climatology heavily favors pure recurves in general.

With that being said, every little bit of latitude that 95L does not gain during its early stages could really matter for its future later down the road. Whether it goes out to sea completely, affects the Northeast US, or grazes the Lesser Antilles, this is going to definitely be a storm to watch in the sense that the conditions that are predicted for its future make it a storm that nobody would ever want to be affected by.

[blp]

I was reading through the Sam models thread recently given the number of social media comparisons being presented between this storm and 95L. It's certainly possible that this ends up as a similar strength/track storm compared to Sam. However, one thing to note is that Sam developed earlier (near roughly 33 W) while 95L is more west than that. Additionally, Sam experienced a dramatic slowdown, followed by a turn to the NW and eventually north, and occurred in late September, when climatology heavily favors pure recurves in general.

With that being said, every little bit of latitude that 95L does not gain during its early stages could really matter for its future later down the road. Whether it goes out to sea completely, affects the Northeast US, or grazes the Lesser Antilles, this is going to definitely be a storm to watch in the sense that the conditions that are predicted for its future make it a storm that nobody would ever want to be affected by.

Agree, if I was in the islands I would be watching this short term motion. If it comes further west there is no way this does not clip or directly strike. I don't see the short term NW motion being progged. This is why I am waiting for this to form to start buying into the model runs completely.

[IcyTundra]

Good lord 931 mb on the GFS so far.

[AubreyStorm]

I read this: Yizzuussss

@wolfywise3

Worth noting that #95L is currently moving west, well south of guidance.

“I doubt such a scenario is possible. This is more a concern for the Caribbean islands”

[Meteorcane]

GFS continues to be insistent upon the amplified Great Lakes closed low and upstream ridge pattern in the extended... I'll give it some props for essentially doing this 4 straight runs in the day 8-9 range but definitely add odds with the EC's more progressive pattern.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS continues to be insistent upon the amplified Great Lakes closed low and upstream ridge pattern in the extended... I'll give it some props for essentially doing this 4 straight runs in the day 8-9 range but definitely add odds with the EC's more progressive pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/uofjgCn.png

Even though it does consistently show the trough, there’s still a good degree of run to run variation in whether the trough cuts farther north or farther south. The farther south this occurs, the more dangerous it is for the NE.

Additionally, I think the gfs is shifting more north in the mid range as it catches up on the degree of expected strengthening. This seems to be key, as every bit of latitude it gains in the next days looks to influence how early it starts to get pulled north. Given that it’s already a bit south of the short term guidance, we will need to watch closely to see if this bend northward actually happens when the rate of development kicks up in the next day or two.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET was the westernmost 12Z major model run by 300-350 miles. Despite that, the 0Z is ~200 miles WSW of the 12Z. It is also weaker.

So, at 168, the 0Z UKMET is a whopping 500 miles WSW of the 0Z GFS and 450 miles W of the 0Z ICON in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.3N 41.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 24 13.3N 41.7W 1010 23
1200UTC 06.09.2023 36 13.9N 44.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 48 15.0N 46.5W 1007 35
1200UTC 07.09.2023 60 16.1N 48.9W 1006 34
0000UTC 08.09.2023 72 17.0N 52.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 08.09.2023 84 17.9N 55.3W 1006 35
0000UTC 09.09.2023 96 18.9N 58.6W 1006 32
1200UTC 09.09.2023 108 19.3N 62.1W 1006 38
0000UTC 10.09.2023 120 20.3N 65.1W 1005 40
1200UTC 10.09.2023 132 21.2N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 11.09.2023 144 21.7N 69.4W 1005 38
1200UTC 11.09.2023 156 22.1N 71.5W 1004 36
0000UTC 12.09.2023 168 22.7N 72.9W 1004 34

[ElectricStorm]

My word HAFS-B

[Ianswfl]

The 12Z UKMET was the westernmost 12Z major model run by 300-350 miles. Despite that, the 0Z is ~200 miles WSW of the 12Z. It is also weaker.

So, at 168, the 0Z UKMET is a whopping 500 miles WSW of the 0Z GFS and 450 miles W of the 0Z ICON in the SE Bahamas moving slowly WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.3N 41.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 24 13.3N 41.7W 1010 23
1200UTC 06.09.2023 36 13.9N 44.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 48 15.0N 46.5W 1007 35
1200UTC 07.09.2023 60 16.1N 48.9W 1006 34
0000UTC 08.09.2023 72 17.0N 52.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 08.09.2023 84 17.9N 55.3W 1006 35
0000UTC 09.09.2023 96 18.9N 58.6W 1006 32
1200UTC 09.09.2023 108 19.3N 62.1W 1006 38
0000UTC 10.09.2023 120 20.3N 65.1W 1005 40
1200UTC 10.09.2023 132 21.2N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 11.09.2023 144 21.7N 69.4W 1005 38
1200UTC 11.09.2023 156 22.1N 71.5W 1004 36
0000UTC 12.09.2023 168 22.7N 72.9W 1004 34

The UKmet and ICON are alarming. ICON wsw wobbles end of run and STRONG, UKMET weak, but heading wnw into hot waters. Pattern change being snuffed out?

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro will stay fish, but this setup shouldn't instill confidence, especially if you're in the mid Atlantic or even more so Atlantic Canada after dealing with 928 MB Fiona

[CrazyC83]

My word HAFS-B
https://i.imgur.com/THeKO9t.png

Not unreasonable at all. I see no reason why this doesn't become a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro much slower, but also much more in line with the GFS this run than previous runs.

If this pattern comes to fruition I would very much anticipate a landfall or at the very least significant impacts for Atlantic Canada and/or the Mid Atlantic.

Of course we're still barely out of fantasy land being 10 or so days out.

[Cachondo23]

I read this: Yizzuussss

@wolfywise3

Worth noting that #95L is currently moving west, well south of guidance.

“I doubt such a scenario is possible. This is more a concern for the Caribbean islands”

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5Or03Rb0AAcI2D.jpg

[Cachondo23]

I read this: Yizzuussss

@wolfywise3

Worth noting that #95L is currently moving west, well south of guidance.

“I doubt such a scenario is possible. This is more a concern for the Caribbean islands”


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5Or03Rb0AAcI2D.jpg

Looks like is taking its time to develop. Will it continue due west today? We shall see

[mantis83]

euro says bermuda is in the crosshairs

[REDHurricane]

My word HAFS-B
https://i.imgur.com/THeKO9t.png

Not unreasonable at all. I see no reason why this doesn't become a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

In your opinion, what are the odds this will turn into a near-900mb monster (lowest I've seen is 897mb) like an impressive percentage of the Euro ensemble members have been showing the past few days? I've never seen the Euro remotely close to this enthusiastic about a storm's intensity before, and given that the Euro usually underestimates intensity by a decent margin, do you think this could have any chance at all of approaching Wilma and its 882mb/185mph basin-wide record if everything falls into place? Obviously it's extremely unlikely to happen with this particular system, but as SSTs continue rising every year in the Atlantic I assume that Wilma's record will be matched or beaten at some point within the not too distant future, and as modeling forecast skill continues to improve I would think (hope) that the models are savvy enough to pick up on such a storm's potential at least a few days in advance like we're seeing right now. Not trying to get too ahead of myself before a TC has even formed, but we could be in for a wild cat 5 level ride in the next week to ten days if these conditions verify

[ColdMiser123]

Euro will stay fish, but this setup shouldn't instill confidence, especially if you're in the mid Atlantic or even more so Atlantic Canada after dealing with 928 MB Fiona

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023090500/ec-fast_z500aNorm_atl_8.png

Agreed that this is a low confidence forecast. Check out how much the pattern over SE Canada changed compared to yesterday's 0z Euro run:

[TheDreamTraveler]

There's a lot of variables that are going to be changing and with a setup like this any little changes will make a huge difference in overall track. They were showing the 12z Euro here. The new 0z Euro has the storm moving more north now with the storm a bit farther west. A couple more shifts like that and the threat becomes more likely on the Euro

 https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1698845976423801279

[SouthFLTropics]

Some interesting developments on this mornings GEFS ensembles. Appears that a few of them get left behind or continue on a WNW heading towards the Bahamas. Has the UKMET sniffed out a pattern change ahead of the other globals?


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[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... Pretty large spread now...