ATL: LEE - Models

[kevin]

12z hurricane models overview.

HWRF
PEAK: 930 mb @ 90 hrs | 130 kt @ 78 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 32
06 / 998 / 45
12 / 995 / 56
18 / 989 / 60
24 / 990 / 62
30 / 987 / 55
36 / 987 / 64
42 / 978 / 71 - CAT 1
48 / 977 / 71
54 / 974 / 75
60 / 969 / 82
66 / 954 / 101 - CAT 3
72 / 942 / 116 - CAT 4
78 / 936 / 130
84 / 932 / 125
90 / 930 / 125
96 / 931 / 125
102 / 933 / 123
108 / 937 / 119
114 / 939 / 114
120 / 940 / 118
126 / 942 / 111

HMON
PEAK: 925 mb @ 108 hrs | 136 kt @ 96 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 29
06 / 1002 / 39
12 / 999 / 43
18 / 995 / 50
24 / 995 / 51
30 / 994 / 56
36 / 991 / 63
42 / 987 / 61
48 / 984 / 63
54 / 979 / 67 - CAT 1
60 / 972 / 76
66 / 966 / 95 - CAT 2
72 / 955 / 107 - CAT 3
78 / 941 / 121 - CAT 4
84 / 935 / 127
90 / 933 / 127
96 / 929 / 136
102 / 927 / 128
108 / 925 / 131
114 / 928 / 124
120 / 930 / 130
126 / 925 / 134

HAFS-A
PEAK: 919 mb @ 117 hrs | 140 kt @ 108 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 31
06 / 1001 / 38
12 / 998 / 51
18 / 997 / 53
24 / 996 / 52
30 / 991 / 61
36 / 994 / 61
42 / 989 / 58
48 / 989 / 66 - CAT 1
54 / 987 / 60
60 / 981 / 66
66 / 969 / 83 - CAT 2
72 / 957 / 110 - CAT 3
78 / 947 / 123 - CAT 4
84 / 943 / 120
90 / 937 / 132
96 / 935 / 137 - CAT 5
102 / 930 / 136
108 / 923 / 140
114 / 921 / 132
120 / 924 / 122
126 / 921 / 135

HAFS-B
PEAK: 908 mb @ 117 hrs | 153 kt @ 105 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 31
06 / 1001 / 42
12 / 999 / 51
18 / 995 / 53
24 / 990 / 75
30 / 988 / 63
36 / 988 / 60
42 / 981 / 65 - CAT 1
48 / 978 / 72
54 / 972 / 71
60 / 963 / 89 - CAT 2
66 / 949 / 110 - CAT 3
72 / 940 / 106
78 / 936 / 132 - CAT 4
84 / 936 / 130
90 / 930 / 132
96 / 925 / 140 - CAT 5
102 / 918 / 147
108 / 915 / 146
114 / 909 / 149
120 / 912 / 133
126 / 910 / 139

Average of the 4 models
PEAK: 924 mb @ 114 hrs | 135 kt @ 96 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 31
06 / 1001 / 41
12 / 998 / 50
18 / 994 / 54
24 / 993 / 60
30 / 990 / 59
36 / 990 / 62
42 / 984 / 64
48 / 982 / 68 - CAT 1
54 / 978 / 68
60 / 971 / 78
66 / 960 / 97 - CAT 3
72 / 949 / 110
78 / 940 / 127 - CAT 4
84 / 937 / 126
90 / 933 / 129
96 / 930 / 135
102 / 927 / 134
108 / 925 / 134
114 / 924 / 130
120 / 927 / 126
126 / 925 / 130

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699127110613491868

[Meteorcane]

Eastern CONUS troughing definitely weaker/less amplified (really it looks like the Upper Midwest shortwave is less progressive in this run) into the medium range on the 12Z EC, fortunately still a lot of wiggle room to the east until this becomes a concrete threat to the Turks and Caicos, so it is possible this has no impacts on sensible impacts.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro at hour 180 ~75miles SSW of 0Z 192 with 925 mb but still recurving along 67W.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Stronger ridge on top vs yesterday's 12z

[SouthFLTropics]

We've got to play the long game here when it comes to potential CONUS impacts. I'm not about to get a warm and fuzzy feeling here, even in Florida, when the Euro still has this thing directly east of us in nine days. Alot can happen in nine days. The more immediate concern is for the islands. So far, it looks like it may skirt to the north, thankfully.

[Meteorcane]

Not exactly the upper level pattern you want to see at the end of this EC run (unless you live in Bermuda), trending a bit more towards the GFS solution of a more amplified low near the Great Lakes which in turns supports the development of downstream ridging over the Northwestern Atlantic. But since we are talking about days 8-10 the ensembles will probably be of more use seeing if this is trending towards a more probable evolution, then one deterministic run.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET 162-168 shows start of recurve but much closer to SE than other models implying a potential problem for NC north after run ends considering that it is recurving at least 5 degrees (~300 miles) further west than the GFS: scroll down to see each map


SLP 162
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 0600z.html

SLP 168
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 1200z.html

H5 at 162
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 0600z.html

H5 at 168
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 1200z.html

*Edited to clarify 300 miles further west than 12Z GFS

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1699141480110022786

[Spacecoast]

GFS Track trend:

[galaxy401]

Those tracks look like a Bill 2009 and Earl 2010 analog. Too early to confirm for certain though.

[Iceresistance]

What is with the KMA? It repeats the 1938 New England Hurricane all over again!


(Will not post the Twit here since it's from a troll account)

[underthwx]

What is with the KMA? It repeats the 1938 New England Hurricane all over again!


(Will not post the Twit here since it's from a troll account)

You may have answered your own question?...maybe invalid information Ice?

[Iceresistance]

What is with the KMA? It repeats the 1938 New England Hurricane all over again!


(Will not post the Twit here since it's from a troll account)

You may have answered your own question?...maybe invalid information Ice?

I found the model run on that Twit account, I think you can see it on WeatherBell (Paid Subscription required).

[edu2703]

What is with the KMA? It repeats the 1938 New England Hurricane all over again!


(Will not post the Twit here since it's from a troll account)

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1699131016198111244

[Iceresistance]

What is with the KMA? It repeats the 1938 New England Hurricane all over again!


(Will not post the Twit here since it's from a troll account)

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1699131016198111244/photo/1

The troll account is named "#LOCKITIN", that is where I first found it FYI.


(Sorry for being OT, I had to confirm the name of the troll account)

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro Ensembles:

[Blown Away]

12z Euro Ensembles:

https://i.imgur.com/TUmiJgU.gif

EPS has a few W drifters for the first time?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yikes

[Tekken_Guy]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/VzVqDzz.png

If this run verifies who gets the worst of Lee?