WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

98W INVEST 230720 0000 11.6N 130.1E WPAC 20 1002

[cycloneye]

Issued at 2023/07/20 01:10 UTC
Analysis at 07/20 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°00′ (12.0°)
E133°55′ (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[dexterlabio]

It's rare, at least to me, seeing Euro caving in to GFS

[Hayabusa]

Still lots of west ensembles, let's see if it's really a trend

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.7N 134.4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 130.9, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCENTRATED VORTICITY,
ALONG WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICIES AND BROAD CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200126Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ILL-DEFINED, BROAD
AND ELONGATED AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS WELL OVER 140 NM BASED ON
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, PROVIDING EVIDENCE THAT IN SOME WAYS, THE SYSTEM
HAS CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-
15KT) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Still lots of west ensembles, let's see if it's really a trend
https://i.imgur.com/WQjSt7X.png

06z

[cycloneye]

Looks much better.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN22 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 133.9E TO 15.4N 130.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 133.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1N 130.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST
OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
201336Z GMI 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD ELONGATED LLC. THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS WELL OVER 160 NM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. VWS REMAINS LOW (10-
15KT) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212100Z.
//

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm Doksuri.

T2305(Doksuri)
Issued at 2023/07/21 01:15 UTC
Analysis at 07/21 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°00′ (14.0°)
E133°00′ (133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

00z ensembles shifted east but still a large spread

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS seems the most consistent and I see their track more likely to pan out. Definitely going to bring lots of moisture to the archipelago.

Also, the PAGASA, CMA, HKO, and JMA have recognized this as a cyclone (at least a TD) and are all rather aggressive with it. Surprised the JTWC has not pulled the trigger.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 131.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 863 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS INVEST 98W HAS
INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI). ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND
A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. DEEP
CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS IS PRESENT NEAR THE LLCC. A
210916Z SMOS WINDSPEED IMAGE DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED WIND FIELD
AROUND THE LLCC, WITH MAX WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SMOS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SMOS IMAGE AND EARLIER ASCAT
IMAGERY. MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT IS ASSESSED BASED ON SUBSTANTIAL
FLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO THE
NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W IS EXPECTED TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH. BEYOND THAT, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH EAST ASIA CAUSES A WEAKENING
OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR TD 05W TO GAIN
LATITUDE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND IMPROVING
OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AND MAY EVEN
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST CALLS FOR TD 05W TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALL SUGGEST
A WESTWARD TRACK OF THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK
ERRORS (170 NM SPREAD BY TAU 120). THE MODELS THEN TURN THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 60, BUT THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THE TURN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH SIGNIFICANT
CROSS-TRACK ERRORS INCREASING TO OVER 400 NM. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
BEYOND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1682422214031732739

[cycloneye]

WP, 05, 2023072118, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1316E, 30, 1002, TD

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.6N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.7N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.4N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.0N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 131.3E.
21JUL23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TXPQ25 KNES 220029
TCSWNP

A. 05W (DOKSURI)

B. 22/0000Z

C. 14.6N

D. 131.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT ARE ALSO
2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING