ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is a big blob of convection firing off near where the center is. We will have to see if it maintains or gets sheared off.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Likely sizably deeper than what NHC went with both at the intermediate advisory (1006mb) and best track entry (1004mb). Buoy 41002 is recording 1002.6mb with 31.1kt sustained winds.

[Vdogg]

Likely sizably deeper than what NHC went with both at the intermediate advisory (1006mb) and best track entry (1004mb). Buoy 41002 is recording 1002.6mb with 31.1kt sustained winds.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1154676632695607377/169536676140903887.png?width=720&height=540

Might be ready for an upgrade at 5, or at least 11, at the current pace. Slowly but surely building.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Good thing about this system is many places in the mid-atlantic are starting to get into a moderate drought in southern PA, Maryland, Virginia etc so a ton of rain would do these areas good.

[Landy]

Buoy is now recording 999.6mb.

[Landy]

[Vdogg]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1154715032760881192/goes16_ir_meso2_9.gif

In a lower sheer environment this thing would take off. It’s sloppy, but it’s certainly making a run for it, and will probably get the job done as far as getting a name today.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Shear appears high, and it's still not tropical. Would be nice to get recon in there before it reaches the coast before sunrise tomorrow. Seems to be moving faster than predicted, too. Main impact will be rainfall along the coast, along with some TS winds on the coast.

[Steve]

Good thing about this system is many places in the mid-atlantic are starting to get into a moderate drought in southern PA, Maryland, Virginia etc so a ton of rain would do these areas good.

Nothing extreme, but there's a pretty good swath of 2-5" about 100 miles inland from the Atlantic Coast.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1695388164

[TallyTracker]

I hope when they do name this system that they say subtropical rather than tropical to a least acknowledge the hybrid structure. It’s gaining energy from a warm core over warm waters but that’s not the only place it’s getting energy. Also the RMW is massive with this system. Subtropical would be appropriate.

[ChrisH-UK]

[MGC]

Lots of convection in the northern section of the cyclone. I would expect STS upgrade today. Looks like a cold front is attached on the eastern side of system. My Son in VA Beach says he is ready for some wind and rain.....MGC

[KirbyDude25]

Lots of convection in the northern section of the cyclone. I would expect STS upgrade today. Looks like a cold front is attached on the eastern side of system. My Son in VA Beach says he is ready for some wind and rain.....MGC

They'll probably use the data from this afternoon's recon flight to decide whether to name it; if it's not named after that one, it likely will be after the overnight flight given current trends. Given the cloud pattern, I also expect this to be classified as subtropical, but the impacts will likely be about the same either way. It looks like it'll mostly be a rain threat here in Jersey, but surge and wind will definitely be a concern for NC and Virginia.

[sponger]

Buoy pressures are certainly indicating a extratropical storm.

[wxman57]

Looks like it will be inland before sunrise tomorrow. It's moving more quickly than predicted. I see recon is on its way now. Should be there in the next hour or so.

[BensonTCwatcher]

More sheared that I though it would be and moving faster. The Southerly shear vector is pushing it faster and some dry air looks to be mixing in further holding back convection. I'm right on the tip of the Cape Fear and we are seeing less rain than anticipated as well. Wind is picking up to 20 mph gusting to 30.

[ElectricStorm]

Still clearly frontal as of 12z


Still expected to be frontal on the 18 hour forecast (valid for 6z 9/23)

[Teban54]

If NHC doesn't end up classifying it as a TC (and scientifically speaking they shouldn't if the system remains frontal as models are showing), this will likely be one of the best uses for a PTC designation since its inception.