ATL: LEE - Models

[BobHarlem]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

[Spacecoast]

18z EPS: Some weaker members, (more south) compared to 12z. Ensemble mean shifts south, crosses 60W slightly north of 20N

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

12z UKMet Ensembles

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1699238013862384040

[Ianswfl]

UKMet Ensembles

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1699238013862384040

18z operational euro is a lot weaker than 12z.

[Emmett_Brown]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

Interesting that the stronger members seem to be on the left side of the ensemble mean during the first 72 hours.

[MetroMike]

UKMet Ensembles

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1699238013862384040

18z operational euro is a lot weaker than 12z.

I thought that was referring to the UKMet.

[SouthernBreeze]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZK9QyC11/IMG-1381.png

Even just 1 or 2 runs back they were showing the big curve starting by the end of this run. Turn seems to have disappeared for now

[AubreyStorm]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

https://i.imgur.com/j3IeY09.png

I don’t like due west near over Puerto Rico

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1699238734846181584

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/drmetwatch/status/1699239611317240006

[chaser1]

Eyeballing 18z EPS... More South at 100+hrs

https://i.imgur.com/j3IeY09.png

I don’t like due west near over Puerto Rico

Neither do roughly 3 million others that live there.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon shifted ever so slightly to the right (north) of 12z. 0zGFS out to 48 hours is also right/north of 18z. (as is the canadian although the canadian to a lesser degree) Better news for the islands.

[Meteorcane]

Lol, as soon as the EC begins to show a more amplified Great Lakes trough in the extended (the GFS solution the last several runs) the GFS begins to trend more progressive. This may be the first GFS run in a couple days that shows a total recurve with no impacts to Atlantic Canada (but still given we are talking over 7 days out, it would be foolish to take that verbatim.

Edit: It does eventually split the trough over the eastern US with the southern split taking on a negative tilt, so still likely a threat to Atlantic Canada.

[mantis83]

a safe recurve is looking more and more likely as we get closer in time.....

[PavelGaborik10]

GFS certainly trending in the right direction


A recurve is looking likely imo.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET is a bit stronger. But more importantly, it is recurving 200 miles E of the 12Z run thus implying a significantly lower risk of landfall to the CONUS. Whereas two runs ago it was in the SE Bahamas and the last run was just N of the SE Bahamas, this run is ~250 miles NE of those islands:

TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 13.8N 42.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 14.1N 44.7W 1006 37
0000UTC 07.09.2023 24 15.3N 46.9W 1004 41
1200UTC 07.09.2023 36 16.4N 49.5W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.09.2023 48 17.0N 52.2W 1003 35
1200UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.7N 54.9W 1002 42
0000UTC 09.09.2023 72 18.4N 57.9W 1000 45
1200UTC 09.09.2023 84 18.8N 60.2W 1000 48
0000UTC 10.09.2023 96 19.8N 62.1W 998 53
1200UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.5N 64.2W 998 55
0000UTC 11.09.2023 120 20.8N 65.6W 997 54
1200UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.2N 67.0W 996 52
0000UTC 12.09.2023 144 22.0N 67.7W 993 54
1200UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.3N 68.0W 987 51
0000UTC 13.09.2023 168 24.4N 68.9W 977 56

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-B, ~140kts/918mb

[ElectricStorm]

HAFS-A/HAFS-B/HMON all have a Cat 5 (HMON is borderline as of hour 93) by sometime Saturday, we'll see if HWRF joins them

[Meteorcane]

a safe recurve is looking more and more likely as we get closer in time.....

Still too much uncertainty in the long term to feel too safe about Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and the NE US. I still wouldn't necessarily say there is no threat for the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas either... only takes a somewhat stronger ridge.