ATL: LEE - Models

[ElectricStorm]

Nuclear HAFS-B run, so close to sub-900. Peaks at 160kts/901mb

[LarryWx]

a safe recurve is looking more and more likely as we get closer in time.....

Still too much uncertainty in the long term to feel too safe about Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and the NE US. I still wouldn't necessarily say there is no threat for the Turks and Caicos and eastern Bahamas either... only takes a somewhat stronger ridge.

If anything, the risk to Bermuda is increasing. But the risk to the NE US, after a bit of a concern largely based on the far left UKMET, has dropped somewhat from how it looked earlier. Hopefully future UKMETs will not go back as far left as they were. However, I'm still maintaining a small risk of landfall to the NE US because we're still 9 or so days out...too long to give an all clear.

[mantis83]

0z euro says not so fast on a safe recurve....

[kevin]

Why does the Euro have to ruin it for everyone , recurve is not yet guaranteed at all. Probably a New Jersey or New York hit beyond 240 hrs.

[weeniepatrol]

Why does the Euro have to ruin it for everyone , recurve is not yet guaranteed at all. Probably a New Jersey or New York hit beyond 240 hrs.

https://imgur.com/IduiJRJ

And another tropical cyclone developing in the MDR lol

[Blown Away]

Why does the Euro have to ruin it for everyone , recurve is not yet guaranteed at all. Probably a New Jersey or New York hit beyond 240 hrs.

https://imgur.com/IduiJRJ

And another tropical cyclone developing in the MDR lol

00z Euro Trend…

[SFLcane]

.

[mantis83]

6z gfs has another major hurricane in the long range that takes the same path we've seen all season.....

[LarryWx]

Last 5 EPS runs (0Z and 12Z only): # of members with CONUS H landfall

0Z 9/6: 5 (10%)

12Z 9/5: 2 (4%)

0Z 9/5: 4 (8%)

12Z 9/4: 1 (2%)

0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

 So, although still a small %, the latest run has the highest yet.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1699388919878451466

[kevin]

HAFS-B

[aspen]

HAFS-B

https://i.imgur.com/mDGy7qj.png

Last run was even stronger at 160 kt/901 mbar, an even stronger version of Dorian or Irma. It shows RI starting Thursday evening into Friday morning.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z gfs has another major hurricane in the long range that takes the same path we've seen all season.....

What path is that?

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro hour 72 is slightly E of 0Z 78 and similar to yesterday's 12Z at 90.

[AutoPenalti]

6z gfs has another major hurricane in the long range that takes the same path we've seen all season.....

What path is that?

his favorite word. "OTS"

[Stormcenter]

Can you say fish storm?

[cheezyWXguy]

6z gfs has another major hurricane in the long range that takes the same path we've seen all season.....

What path is that?

his favorite word. "OTS"

Ha it’s my favorite path too, but it’s not ots unless we’ve collectively decided that Maine and Atlantic Canada don’t exist anymore

[BobHarlem]

Can you say fish storm?

Nope Bermuda and Atlantic Canada exist. But I think OBX and especially north of there and Bermuda are possible. Bermuda/Canada probably the highest probability right now on a rather sketchy and subject to change scale.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I watched a pair of retired pro mets from the NE last night (NYC and Northern New Jersey) they examined several model runs of the GFS, Euro, and Gem explaining why the long-range solution is all over the place. The key factors are the evolution of two troughs the first of which comes down this weekend and the second of which comes down mid-late next week. The models have been handling these features differently from run to run something that hasn't changed this morning I see. Interesting times ahead.

[verruckt]

Why does the Euro have to ruin it for everyone , recurve is not yet guaranteed at all. Probably a New Jersey or New York hit beyond 240 hrs.

https://imgur.com/IduiJRJ

And another tropical cyclone developing in the MDR lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tgkDH4qM/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-atl-fh216-trend.gif [/url]
00z Euro Trend…

That's quite a south and west jump... lets see if it trends.