ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

https://i.postimg.cc/tCKzh1Sk/goes16-vis-10-L-202308271312.gif

It only takes a few hours of east movement to make this a tampa problem in a big way

[Ianswfl]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

https://i.postimg.cc/tCKzh1Sk/goes16-vis-10-L-202308271312.gif

It only takes a few hours of east movement to make this a tampa problem in a big way

Hurricane models predicted this east jog snd some shear. Not a ton of shear. I can see a cat3 in the gulf.

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gtgk2f4S/9-DB7-E8-A9-AA95-48-D7-BCC6-9-AB3250-AAC6-A.jpg [/url]

From 4am Update:
INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

If the COC is in the circle @19.9N/85.8W, the 4am didn’t have TD10 crossing 85.7 for @60 hrs…

Yup. Once the recon data is fed into the models I fear a big swing in the model guidances. It’s part of the game.

recon is great and this easterly LLC movement if it continues into the afternoon, will cause a big swing down the coast..euro caught the southerly movement but didnt get all of it and now we have east movement

[Owasso]

40 kt FL. We might have Idalia here

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Gtgk2f4S/9-DB7-E8-A9-AA95-48-D7-BCC6-9-AB3250-AAC6-A.jpg [/url]



If the COC is in the circle @19.9N/85.8W, the 4am didn’t have TD10 crossing 85.7 for @60 hrs…

Yup. Once the recon data is fed into the models I fear a big swing in the model guidances. It’s part of the game.

recon is great and this easterly LLC movement if it continues into the afternoon, will cause a big swing down the coast..euro caught the southerly movement but didnt get all of it and now we have east movement

Hurricane models picked the east movement very well! Hence the huge shift at 06z.

[Coolcruiseman]

An interesting start to this storm. Have there been other storms that start like this before taking a beeline towards Florida?

Since I moved back here in 1987 let me just sum up the scientific jargon into one word:

"Lots"

From this location between the Yucatán & Cuba?

[Poonwalker]

Naked swirl alert, not surprising because of the predicted northerly shear as UL anticyclone moves SW away from it.
Appears to be moving east now.

https://i.imgur.com/L5Hsv0i.gif

Which means the storms should start wrapping around rapidly by tonight. Not good for FL.

That’s wild. Might be ejecting a center. If it relocates to this one that is bad news.

[ronjon]

Looks to be poorly organized now with shear exposing the COC. Perhaps the globals like Euro are on to something with sloppy storm only slowly organizing toward a Cedar Key/St Mark's landfall. Latest Euro only drops pressure at landfall down to 992 mb. There is a lot of westerly shear up to about 27N currently. Add in a strengthening trough in the NW Gulf in a few days and perhaps it may keep the storm in check.

[NDG]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

https://i.postimg.cc/tCKzh1Sk/goes16-vis-10-L-202308271312.gif

The 06z Euro did a very nice job of the cyclonic turn it has been doing and it did not shift the track that much.
A final track will depend how much ridging builds in north from the central Caribbean between it and Franklin.

[Blown Away]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

https://i.postimg.cc/tCKzh1Sk/goes16-vis-10-L-202308271312.gif

06z ECENS… Red mark is approximately where recon finding COC.

[zzzh]

144400 1940N 08602W 6954 03163 9998 +122 +118 337020 021 034 000 00

Extrapolated pressure down to 999.8

[Owasso]

[Ianswfl]

Definitely looks like the LLC is moving east, the more east it goes the more the track could shift east.

https://i.postimg.cc/tCKzh1Sk/goes16-vis-10-L-202308271312.gif

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/DZgPtTXt/CF2-E08-E4-C16-A-49-A5-83-DC-AE381394-C86-B.jpg [/url]

06z ECENS… Red mark is approximately where recon finding COC.

Those members are around tampa!

[REDHurricane]

Looks to be poorly organized now with shear exposing the COC. Perhaps the globals like Euro are on to something with sloppy storm only slowly organizing toward a Cedar Key/St Mark's landfall. Latest Euro only drops pressure at landfall down to 992 mb. There is a lot of westerly shear up to about 27N currently. Add in a strengthening trough in the NW Gulf in a few days and perhaps it may keep the storm in check.

Euro, while generally reliable for track/genesis, almost always massively underestimates intensity -- I would take that forecast with a boulder of salt, especially when all the other models are showing a more intense system at landfall

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds on the SW quadrant and lower pressure than estimated.

URNT15 KWBC 271444
NOAA3 0110A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20230827
143430 1912N 08625W 6954 03175 0046 +095 +112 307038 040 000 000 01
143500 1914N 08625W 6952 03170 0037 +098 +117 317034 038 000 000 01
143530 1915N 08624W 6950 03175 0034 +101 +118 322032 034 000 000 01
143600 1917N 08623W 6951 03175 0028 +103 +123 309035 037 000 000 01
143630 1919N 08622W 6946 03172 0029 +099 +126 313034 038 000 000 01
143700 1921N 08622W 6950 03172 0023 +107 +129 323036 042 000 000 01
143730 1923N 08621W 6947 03176 0029 +104 +127 325027 036 000 000 01
143800 1925N 08620W 6954 03169 0031 +103 +124 328032 034 000 000 01
143830 1926N 08620W 6954 03167 0026 +105 +126 329034 035 000 000 01
143900 1928N 08619W 6954 03171 0028 +105 +121 334027 032 000 000 01
143930 1930N 08618W 6954 03170 0019 +111 +122 336023 025 000 000 01
144000 1932N 08617W 6954 03171 0013 +116 +122 333022 023 000 000 01
144030 1933N 08616W 6954 03171 0010 +118 +123 338021 022 /// /// 05
144100 1934N 08614W 6957 03165 0012 +115 +124 329023 023 018 000 01
144130 1934N 08611W 6954 03169 0013 +114 +123 327025 025 020 016 01
144200 1935N 08609W 6954 03169 0013 +115 +121 325023 024 023 023 05
144230 1937N 08607W 6953 03168 0010 +117 +119 323019 022 024 026 01
144300 1938N 08606W 6954 03165 0008 +117 +116 327018 019 023 015 00
144330 1939N 08604W 6954 03164 0001 +120 +118 331019 020 028 000 00
144400 1940N 08602W 6954 03163 9998 +122 +118 337020 021 034 000 00

[USTropics]

Recon is heading towards our likely LLC (denoted with an L):


The HWRF may have a decent handle on this currently, where it has a clear displacement of the MLC (to the south, denoted with M):

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are just about there. Lowest pressure so far I've seen is 999mb

[LandoWill]

NHC moved it west again, is that because of GFS?

[Owasso]

995.4 extrap

[NDG]

Extrap pressure of 995 mb, you can tell the circulation is tilted.

144900 1949N 08542W 6957 03154 9954 +158 +081 076002 005 050 000 03