WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TS.

WP, 05, 2023072200, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1311E, 35, 1000, TS

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 052023.dat

[cycloneye]

TPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 18.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 25.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 130.9E.
22JUL23. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

The 0300z prognostic reasoning:

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 131.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 835 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH VIGOROUS
FLARING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO HAMPER WRAPPING OF THE CONVECTION
AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE GFS MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE WEAK VORTEX REMAINS TILTED. A 212023Z F16 PASS
OFFERED LITTLE HELP TO FINE TUNE THE CENTER POSITION, BUT DID
REVEAL THAT CORE CONVECTION WAS STILL WEAK AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON AVAILABLE FIXES WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THANKS TO THE PARTIAL EXPOSURE. HOWEVER, A LATE-ARRIVING
220044Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS (NO CENTER COVERAGE) RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLC COULD BE 20 MILES FURTHER WEST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON T2.5 FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH NOTED. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TICKED UP
TO 10-15 KNOTS, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
OUTFLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY CONSTRAINED TO AN EQUATORWARD CHANNEL,
WITH A TUTT TO THE NORTH EAST PROVIDING A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT. OCEAN
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: ANALYSIS OF F16 DATA. ASCAT PROVIDED NO
COVERAGE OF EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 212340Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 212340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) DOKSURI SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE VORTEX EXPECTED
AS CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 24, AS INDICATED BY MULTIPLE RI AIDS. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
AFTER WHICH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR,
ALLOWING DOKSURI TO START TRACKING POLEWARD. THE TIMING OF THE
POLEWARD TURN WILL LARGELY DICTATE IF DOKSURI TRACKS MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN TAIWAN, OR FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE RYUKUS. PEAK INTENSITY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 105 KNOTS. THE TRACK WAS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON THE GFS
AND HAFS-A SOLUTIONS.


MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HAFS-A MODEL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SPREAD ENVELOPE DUE TO A
FASTER POLEWARD TURN. THE REST OF THE SPREAD IS SLOW TO GAIN LATITUDE
AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME DEVELOPING, WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT
ANALYSIS INDICATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//

[Hayabusa]

00z spread has increased compared to 12z

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.6N 130.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 812 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RELATIVELY
BROAD, STILL DISORGANIZED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH SPOTTY FLARING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ANEMIC, WITH THE COLDEST TOPS OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE BURSTS BARELY
REACHING -80C. VERY DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG,
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) REMAINS FIRMLY ENSCONCED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, PRECLUDING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THAT HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (APPROXIMATELY 4 KNOTS), THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED
AND DISJOINTED ACCORDING TO HAFS-A CROSS-SECTION DATA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING THE ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A PARTIAL 220509Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 35 KNOTS, ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONVERGENCE OF AVAILABLE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5, SUPPORTED BY THE ADT, AIDT AND SATCON
ESTIMATES. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT-CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW IS CONSTRAINED TO THE NORTH DUE TO PRESENCE
OF PERSISTENT, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSHING SOUTH OF 20N. THIS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALSO USHERING IN THE DRY AIR PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED, WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION,
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLOW PACE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 220436Z
CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 220530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, TROPICAL
STORM (TS) DOKSURI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD, ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, ALONG WITH THE
CONSTRAINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE
FOR THE NEXT DAY. AS TUTT-CELL MOVES FURTHER WEST AND MOVES INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS REPLACED BY A DIVERGENT FLOW
INTO THE TUTT. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS, THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL
ALIGN, KICKING OFF MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO DEVELOP A POINT SOURCE ALOFT AND ENHANCE OUTFLOW EVEN MORE
IN A POSITIVE FEEDBACK CYCLE. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE BECOME WELL-ORGANIZED, VERTICALLY STACKED AND PRIMED FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY 48, THE STEERING PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE, WITH THE STR CURRENTLY DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST TO BECOME CENTERED EAST OF TOKYO, WHILE THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE COMPLEX ERODES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF
THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48,
CONTINUING ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT-CELL SOUTH OF KYUSHU
ALONG WITH MOVEMENT OVER A REGION OF HIGH OHC (EXCEEDING 110 KJ PER
CM2) WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FROM 65 KNOTS AT TAU 36 TO 105 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 96 BUT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DUE REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW AND SOME
MODERATELY ENHANCED SHEAR. LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
TAIWAN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, AND THEREAFTER THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE
CONSENSUS IN CONCURRENCE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK, TURNING
NORTHWEST BY TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SPREAD RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 275 NM BY TAU 72
BETWEEN THE NAVGEM ON THE LEFT AND GFS ON THE RIGHT. BY TAU 120,
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 540 NM BETWEEN THE EGRR AND GFS
OUTLIERS. THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, UKMET ENSEMBLE AND COAMPS-TC
(GFS) TRACKERS HAVE SLOWLY CONGEALED INTO A TIGHT GROUPING CENTERED
ON TAIWAN, BUT THIS GROUPING AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST AND WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTREME OUTLIER ON THE RIGHT,
WHILE THE ECMWF, UKMET AND THE SUPER-ENSEMBLE MEAN BRING THE SYSTEM
OVER TAIWAN. THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST SLIDES A BIT WEST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW BRINGING THE SYSTEM OVER TAIWAN, WITH HIGH
TRENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
GROUPED, THOUGH TOO AGGRESSIVE, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SLOW PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION INDUCED BY THE DRY AIR, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT RI WILL
COMMENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
CONSENSUS MEAN THOUGH TAU 36, THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE HIGHER END OF
THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE AFTER TAU 72. THE HAFS-A TRACKER CONTINUES TO
PEAK SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS, NEAR 130 KNOTS,
BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kt and pressure drops to 993 mbs.

WP, 05, 2023072212, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1303E, 40, 993, TS

[Hayabusa]

06z

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 130.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 806 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DOKSURI) CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY, BUT AT A RELATIVELY LEISURELY RATE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC
SYSTEM, WITH A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) SOUTHWESTWARD IN A GRACEFUL
ARC. DRY LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH, WHICH IS STILL INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE
NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATEST FRAMES OF EIR
CONFIRM THAT THE CONVECTION IS ALMOST LINEAR IN NATURE AND UNABLE
TO PENETRATE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 221326Z GPM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE IS SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LOW-LEVEL BANDS BEGINNING TO
FORM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THEY REMAIN VERY
WEAK, WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN SIDE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC, EVEN WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5 AND T3.0, AS WELL AS THE SATCON AND DPRINT
ESTIMATES OF 40 AND 39 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, WITH THE TUTT-CELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING
SOME ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS ACTING LIKE A BLOCKER
RUNNING A PICK, DISRUPTING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
REDUCING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER TS 05W. THIS LOWERED SHEAR IS
ALLOWING FOR OUTFLOW TO BEGIN EXPANDING RADIALLY OUTWARD,
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD. SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE
VERY WARM (30C) AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER AN AREA OF
HIGH OHC EXCEEDING 90 KJ PER CM2.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 221038Z
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 221140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: ENHANCED OUTFLOW TO THE EAST INTO A TUTT-CELL;
LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, TS 05W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP STR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN ITS FAVOR. BY TAU 36, THE UPPER-LEVEL
STEERING PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS THE STEERING RIDGE SHIFTS ITS
CENTER POSITION EASTWARD, AND THE RIDGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
(ECS) BEGINS TO ERODE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN CHINA. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTS WILL
ALLOW TS 05W TO TURN ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A RATE OF ABOUT
10 KNOTS PER 12 HOURS THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS POINT, THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SITTING AT THE BASE OF A SHARP TROUGH SOUTH OF TOKYO AT PRESENT,
WILL DEEPEN AND DIVE SOUTHWARD AND SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POINT
SOUTH OF KYUSHU BY TAU 36. THE POSITIONING OF THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
PROVIDE TS 05W WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), KICKING OFF IN
EARNEST AFTER TAU 36. THE CURRENT PEAK OF 115 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST PRIOR TO TAU 96, BUT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAIWAN LANDFALL, WHICH CANNOT BE
CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST POINTS. A PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 120
KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OVER A POOL OF VERY WARM
(30-31C) WATERS WITH HIGH OHC (90 KJ PER CM2) WHICH SITS JUST EAST
OF TAIWAN AND WILL BY THAT TIME BE TAPPING INTO A VERY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF
TAIWAN IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96, WITH THE TRACK AFTER LANDFALL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO TERRAIN INDUCED TRACK VARIABILITY THAT
DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
CONTAINED WITHIN A 95NM ENVELOPE, WITH THE NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC
(NAVGEM) BEING NOTABLE OUTLIERS IN PERSISTING ON A WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE DIVERGE
FROM THE PACK AROUND TAU 36 AND ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS FROM THAT
POINT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TRACK SPREAD WIDENS UP TO
180NM BY TAU 72 AND 440NM BY TAU 120. OF NOTE WITH THIS RUN, GFS
AND GEFS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND NOW TRACK OVER ISHIGAKIJIMA, THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND NOW TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
LUZON STRAIT BY TAU 96, HAVING BEEN OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN ON THE
PREVIOUS RUN. FINALLY, THE LATEST ECENS AND MOGREPS ENSEMBLES ALSO
SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THIS RUN. THE TOTALITY OF THESE CHANGES SUPPORT
A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE JTWC TRACK TO THE WEST FROM TAU 72 TO
TAU 120, BUT ALSO INTRODUCE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
LONG-RANGE FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES
JUST EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM TRENDING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER TAUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND HAFS-A SUPPORTING A SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TREND TO ABOUT TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY RI THEREAFTER.
MULTIPLE RI AIDS ARE ALSO TRIGGERED WITH THIS RUN. THE CONSENSUS
MEAN, EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RI AIDS, PEAKS AT JUST 105 KNOTS
AT TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. THE HAFS-A SEEMS
TO BE MORE REALISTIC, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 84. THE
NON-INTERPOLATED HAFS-A ACTUALLY PEAKS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
AROUND 135 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 70 PERCENT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU
72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 48
THEN TRANSITIONS RAPIDLY TO TRACK THE HAFS-A FORECAST THROUGH TAU
120. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TRENDING TO LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

[cycloneye]

12z GFS with Taiwan Landfall.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A at 899 mbs close to Taiwan.

[Hayabusa]

HAFS-A at 899 mbs close to Taiwan.

https://i.imgur.com/jDgrgtS.png

Is this the first sub 900 mb run by HFSA

[cycloneye]

HWRF make landfall in Taiwan.

[cycloneye]

HAFS-A at 899 mbs close to Taiwan.

https://i.imgur.com/jDgrgtS.png

Is this the first sub 900 mb run by HFAS

The model began operation on June 27 so is the first.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Yellow Evan]

Large size makes me skeptical of a high intensity wind wise especially as it gains latitude.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 129.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 493 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH BROAD DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO USEFUL ASCAT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.0 AND
T3.5. ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
ADT SHOWING 43 KNOTS AND SATCON SHOWING 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENHANCED EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT-CELL POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AND
SSTS VERY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 221630Z
CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 221630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 05W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN CHINA AS THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND REALIGN IN A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTATION. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTS WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO TURN AND
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE OF THE FORECAST. TS 05W
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW VWS AND VERY WARM SSTS. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WHILE CROSSING OVER A POOL OF VERY WARM SSTS, AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHILE RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
INTO TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 96, 05W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE REEMERGING
INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24 WITH ONLY A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, FROM
TAU 48 TO TAU 96 THE SPREAD INCREASES FROM 145-275NM. NVGM
REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE AVNO AND
AEMN MAKE UP THE EASTERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE AVNO AND AEMN SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LARGE SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS
TRIGGERED LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE ALONG
WITH THE HAFS-A WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 135 KNOTS BY TAU
96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN
THROUGH TAU 48 AND ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN BEYOND TAU 72.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

[cycloneye]

Up to 55 kt.

WP, 05, 2023072300, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1291E, 55, 989, TS

[cycloneye]

Doksuri Is going to make many headlines down the road in the next few days. Going to be a very strong typhoon and will cover a large area.

[Sciencerocks]