ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Looks like a sheared mess this afternoon.

[jlauderdal]

That moisture surge associated with the southern inflow band has now reached the center. Curious to see if this results in any intensification over the next few hours

Shear is in the way of intensification, for now

[ConvergenceZone]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

[eastcoastFL]

[chaser1]

Prediction: Landfall between Cedar Key and Steinhatchee at daybreak Wednesday morning as a Cat 2.

If I were in Ceder Key, Suwannee, Horseshoe Beach, Steinhadchee, & Fish Creek I'd have my head on a swivel given the VERY high risk of storm surge inundation well ahead of any storm center making landfall or even passing close by. With the MLC potentially less then vertically stacked, I could see a primarily northward track with eastward wobbles (or stair stepping) as a continually sheared LLC might pull under a vigorous mid-level core slightly to the "right" (or east). Bottom line, anyone north of Sarasota need consider this event as a potential risk.

[Spacecoast]

[Iceresistance]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

Well, Idalia is a sheared mess right now, but Ian was a mess too before he exploded in intensity onto Cuba and Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

It will probably pick up tonight and tomorrow. It just got named a few hours ago and watched might go up tonight so I imagine traffic will pick up here.

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

[ConvergenceZone]

With the 12z GFS, i would expect a slight... west nudging of the cone

newest run was east of the previous run, wasn't it? and the 11AM discussion said their path may need to move further east

Yep, and the euro has come east, they will nudge it east, they dont stay off the consensus for long

Going East could be good though as that means an earlier landfall and a good amount of less time over water, meaning not as strong.......It could mean the difference between a strong tropical storm at landfall or a hurricane at landfall.

[johngaltfla]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

Everyone is out and about today. I'm grabbing some extra gas at 6 a.m. for the generator just in case, beer and ice on the way home, just in case. But most folks are taking it in stride.

[chris_fit]

Paging @wxman57!

Personal opinion on this one? Possible this thing can pull a right hook like Charley / Ian? Or is this ore like Hermine and Michael track wise? How concerned should one be in the Bradenton area?

[cheezyWXguy]

That moisture surge associated with the southern inflow band has now reached the center. Curious to see if this results in any intensification over the next few hours

Shear is in the way of intensification, for now

True, that will definitely temper things, but modest pressure drops and wind increases should be possible as long as the center can avoid becoming exposed again

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1695867228241948728?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Boy, if THAT doesn't say it all right there ??!!! I had forgotten how badly models whiffed at roughly 72 hr.'s out

[ConvergenceZone]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

Everyone is out and about today. I'm grabbing some extra gas at 6 a.m. for the generator just in case, beer and ice on the way home, just in case. But most folks are taking it in stride.

Yea, that's probably part of it, but now that I think about it, the other part is like one poster said above, Idalia is a sheared mess right now. I think once it proves that it wants to get its act together, we will see alot more posting. Then again, the longer it takes to develop, the weaker it may potentially be at landfall, (since conditions aren't ideal).

[GCANE]

Massive popups firing over Cuba.
That will take care of the mid-level dry air over night.
DMAX might be looking good.

[chaser1]

That moisture surge associated with the southern inflow band has now reached the center. Curious to see if this results in any intensification over the next few hours

Shear is in the way of intensification, for now

True, that will definitely temper things, but modest pressure drops and wind increases should be possible as long as the center can avoid becoming exposed again

At the same time, it's amazing how convective bombs over center can suddenly deflect light to moderate shear. Only problem is you need two things 1) for it to begin 2) for it to continue.

[jlauderdal]

This board is actually shockingly quite in-active considering a hurricane could be two days away from Florida, at least compared to past storms that were within 2 to 3 days of landfall. With some past storms this thread would be over 75 pages by now.

You need sofla or houston area for major activity but have no fear, it will get active when its better organized and on the move, its neither right now

[cycloneye]

Data from bouy 42056.

 https://twitter.com/databuoycenter/status/1695858004594151675

[chaser1]

Massive popups firing over Cuba.
That will take care of the mid-level dry air over night.
DMAX might be looking good.

Not sure that aids convergence for a sheared LLC though

[drewschmaltz]

I feel like I see this often. It can take a while for a storm to get it all together, but sometimes even without ideal conditions, land friction can act to tighten spin. Could be the way Idalia has outperformed models (especially in early stages) in development is because of this land interaction. Happens in this location often too. Just an amateur observation.