ATL: LEE - Models

[GCANE]

So, next Friday, a surface low is expected to form along the front in New England.
May give Lee a tug to turn NW

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

[hohnywx]

12z GFS back west some

[PavelGaborik10]

GFS a hair west, possibly into Maine.

[hohnywx]

GFS a hair west, possibly into Maine.

Direct hit on Nova Scotia

[BobHarlem]

GFS Trend (it almost looks like just an animated run just from the repositioning/speed). The swings with Margot tell me this is stupidly low confidence in general for Lee.

[PavelGaborik10]

GFS a hair west, possibly into Maine.

Direct hit on Nova Scotia

https://imgur.com/B7YQJtn

That would put Halifax directly in the strongest winds, last second hook E makes the world of difference.

It's going to be another several days at least of Doomsday runs until we finally get a general area locked down it seems.

What a rough forecast

[hohnywx]

12z CMC east again into Nova Scotia

[BobHarlem]

CMC and GFS run to run are completely all over the place with Margot, which makes me doubt them on Lee all that much more. Icon's generally not that great but it has at least been consistent with both Lee and Margot.

12z Canadian:
New on that is the system approaching and scraping the islands, Margot shifted way north from 0z, and Lee shifted slightly east. Prepare for the models to be garbage until much closer.

[SootyTern]

Is there anything special about Margot that is giving the models so much trouble? Is it just because she is in an area of fewer weather observations?

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS through 240: not as many hits on US as 12Z run but there still were 7: 6 on ME and 1 on NY. There may not be any more US hits after 240. Nova Scotia gets clobbered even more than on the 12Z. Newfoundland also gets some direct hits in addition to leftovers from some of the Nova Scotia hits.

I saw no more direct US hits on the 0Z EPS after hour 240. So, the hit % for the US went down from 24% to 14%. ME remains at the highest risk of any US state per the EPS:

Summary of recent EPS runs' US landfalls:

9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%)
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%)
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

[gatorcane]

If the GFS is correct, looks like some significant waves caused by Lee from the east coast of Central Florida up the entire eastern seaboard with 25ft waves just offshore the outer banks of NC.

[chris_fit]

EURO coming in decently S at 86 hrs

[Iceresistance]

EURO coming in decently S at 86 hrs

Yeah, I don't like that southern dip, allows Lee to become more stronger with the higher OHCs (unless the wind shear increases)

[chris_fit]

[Blown Away]

EURO coming in decently S at 86 hrs

Yeah, I don't like that southern dip, allows Lee to become more stronger with the higher OHCs (unless the wind shear increases)

12z Euro at 120 hours gives you an eerie feeling it wants to break W... Glad that trough is persistent in the models...

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro coming in significantly S, looks like nearly an entire day slower.

We may need to wait until the 2024 Hurricane season to see where Lee ends up at this rate.

[Iceresistance]

EURO coming in decently S at 86 hrs

Yeah, I don't like that southern dip, allows Lee to become more stronger with the higher OHCs (unless the wind shear increases)

12z Euro at 120 hours gives you an eerie feeling it wants to break W... Glad that trough is persistent in the models...

The problem is that this is known as the "Magic Trough"

It's a trough that suddenly shows up in the models in the CONUS, usually in winter and at the east coast. They usually come from a break-off from way up north.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S42V6.gif
Half of the time, they actually don't exist.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro is at 28N by 168 hours...
12z GFS is at 36N.

That's a pretty major difference in timing.

[mitchell]

Is there anything special about Margot that is giving the models so much trouble? Is it just because she is in an area of fewer weather observations?

The way I see it, it's hard enough for the models to just forecast the track of one system 7-8 days out. multiply that by the uncertainty of forecasting the track of a second system 7 days out, then multiply THAT by the uncertainty of exactly HOW the two systems will interact with one another. That alone is enough to add complication to this scenario.

[gatorcane]

EURO coming in decently S at 86 hrs

Yeah, I don't like that southern dip, allows Lee to become more stronger with the higher OHCs (unless the wind shear increases)

12z Euro at 120 hours gives you an eerie feeling it wants to break W... Glad that trough is persistent in the models...

I don’t get an eerie feeling from the Euro at all. It can’t go west towards Florida or the SE US with that huge trough that swings through the Eastern CONUS: