ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 191020 UTC
Lat : 16:39:35 N Lon : 50:53:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

[cycloneye]

I know there is some confusión as there is a plane on route now but this mission is not to fix Lee but to let go dropsondes. Is the 5 PM one that we will pay atention.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1699853552548519968

[Hurricane2022]

[HURRICANELONNY]

Why not common. We're in the peak oh the season. Not uncommon to have a major floating around the atlantic.

[BobHarlem]

Why not common. We're in the peak oh the season. Not uncommon to have a major floating around the atlantic.

It's not the major being uncommon, it's the incredible intensification rate going on.

[Charleswachal]

Why not common. We're in the peak oh the season. Not uncommon to have a major floating around the atlantic.

That is correct but it is not common to have a system go from TS to Major hurricane this fast and it is not common to have this type of future forecast for rapid intensification

[Sciencerocks]

[hiflyer]

I know there is some confusión as there is a plane on route now but this mission is not to fix Lee but to let go dropsondes. Is the 5 PM one that we will pay atention.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1699853552548519968

Looks like aborted….


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[Nimbus]

Sunset stadium effect as Lee approached -51.
Euro ensembles seem to still be passing north of the 20 -60 Hebert box even with the bend westward later.
Model wars give me a headache out past 120 hours so no idea if New England will need watches and warnings.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking Recon will find at least a strong cat 4 tonight.

[Steve Cosby]

Came across a very good tropical models page from a Univ. of OK PHD student. Has a multi-model ensemble plot of Lee using the GFS, EC, CMC, and UKMET ensembles. Lots of other stuff, too.

Select "Cumulative Plots", "Total Density (no lines)" for the graphic that shows the probability of the center passing within 150km of a point using all 4 ensembles.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/ensembles.php?storm=AL132023

Thank you so much for this - he did a fantastic job on this.

[Sciencerocks]

[TorSkk]

This is unreal. Even if it's no threat to land right now, I feel like they should issue a special advisory for meteorological reasons. This is not a common thing to see whatsoever

If Jova didn't get one yesterday, then no way Lee would, not without recon

[Hurricaneman]

It is probably a mid to upper cat 4 as it’s not a 5 yet but once it knocks out some of those mesovorticies in the eyewall it will peak somewhere between 165mph to 180mph either tomorrow or Saturday

[wx98]

Going with 115 kt Cat 4 at 21z with a low 950s MSLP

[Iceresistance]

125 knots, 930s extrapolated.

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

127 knot flight level, 118 knot smrf and 942mb pressure.

[msbee]

Watching this unfold is just unreal. The power of nature is awe inspiring.
I am so thankful the northeast Caribbean has been spared from a direct hit. It would have been catastrophic. And I hope Lee stays far away from any land.

[Hurricane2022]

130 kt FL, 115 kt SFMR and 945 MSLP