ATL: LEE - Models

[mantis83]

trough after trough blasting out of canada will ensure this monster stays away...hopefully far away

[RevanTheJedi96]

Euro seemed to have shifted east at the end there, no?

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro from 120 hours to 216. Looks like Nova Scotia and close pass by Bermuda:

[BobHarlem]

12z is a bit left of 0z, Margo is way east of 0z though, where the 0z had Lee nudging margot out of the way, 12z has Margo fairly well to the east.

Margot is continuing to really mess with the models at a longer range.

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro similar track to the CMC and GFS at the end into Nova Scotia.....but a full 24-30 hours slower.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has Lee way down at the latitude of Cape Hatteras at 192 on the way to Nova Scotia it appears. This is ~100 miles SSE of the 0Z run. The 12Z run yesterday for the same time had Lee landfalling in E ME!

[RevanTheJedi96]

The 12Z Euro has Lee way down at the latitude of Cape Hatteras at 192 on the way to Nova Scotia it appears. This is ~100 miles SSE of the 0Z run. The 12Z run yesterday for the same time had Lee landfalling in E ME!

Seems a pattern has emerged. Longer time Lee spends down near the Bahamas, further away it ends up from Maine.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has Lee way down at the latitude of Cape Hatteras at 192 on the way to Nova Scotia it appears. This is ~100 miles SSE of the 0Z run. The 12Z run yesterday for the same time had Lee landfalling in E ME!

Seems a pattern has emerged. Longer time Lee spends down near the Bahamas, further away it ends up from Maine.

1) Yep
2) The 12Z UKMET is similar to recent runs with it moving N near 70W at 168.

[ThunderForce]

Operational GFS seems to be a bit more consistent between runs than Operational Euro/ECMWF overall so far. The last eight runs have had Lee start the northward turn between 12z Tuesday 12th and 12z Wednesday 13th.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1700223262364418167

[aspen]

12z HAFS-B shows Lee weakening even more to the 950s, but eventually rebuilds its eyewall, goes through a successful EWRC, and has a secondary peak late Sunday into early Monday. HAFS-A doesn’t weaken it as much and therefore peaks earlier.

[Hayabusa]

eps 12z, the sub 900 pressures are back

[TomballEd]

Perhaps Derek can plot a 10day forecast for Lee, and subject himself to actual verification.

Derek is a private sector met who works on forecasts for energy companies, his MS thesis was on the effects of dry air as shear varied. People are paying for his educated opinions on track and intensity. He won't publish for free what others are charged for. His company may have clients w/ interests in oil offshore Newfoundland.

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance:

Over the next couple of days the NHC track has to start bending to the right as we will be within the 5-day window for the north turn:

[wxman57]

Perhaps Derek can plot a 10day forecast for Lee, and subject himself to actual verification.

Derek is a private sector met who works on forecasts for energy companies, his MS thesis was on the effects of dry air as shear varied. People are paying for his educated opinions on track and intensity. He won't publish for free what others are charged for. His company may have clients w/ interests in oil offshore Newfoundland.

Derek is a very good tropical meteorologist. His forecasts, like mine, are verified each year. He can sometimes be a pain in the butt. Kind of reminds me of myself when I was his age. Derek knows a lot about modeling. When I was in school, we barely had computers (1970s).

Speaking of models, here are the new multi-model ensemble runs from 12Z. First the one with no lines:



With lines. Canadian is the west outlier. All head for Nova Scotia.



Super ensemble (all tracks from 4 models):

[Spacecoast]

Perhaps Derek can plot a 10day forecast for Lee, and subject himself to actual verification.

Derek is a private sector met who works on forecasts for energy companies, his MS thesis was on the effects of dry air as shear varied. People are paying for his educated opinions on track and intensity. He won't publish for free what others are charged for. His company may have clients w/ interests in oil offshore Newfoundland.

I did not realize this. I stand corrected.

[OuterBanker]

Perhaps Derek can plot a 10day forecast for Lee, and subject himself to actual verification.

Derek is a private sector met who works on forecasts for energy companies, his MS thesis was on the effects of dry air as shear varied. People are paying for his educated opinions on track and intensity. He won't publish for free what others are charged for. His company may have clients w/ interests in oil offshore Newfoundland.

Derek is a very good tropical meteorologist. His forecasts, like mine, are verified each year. He can sometimes be a pain in the butt. Kind of reminds me of myself when I was his age. Derek knows a lot about modeling. When I was in school, we barely had computers (1970s).

Speaking of models, here are the new multi-model ensemble runs from 12Z. First the one with no lines:

http://wxman57.com/images/MMENoLines12Z08.JPG

With lines. Canadian is the west outlier. All head for Nova Scotia.

http://wxman57.com/images/MME12Z08.JPG

Super ensemble (all tracks from 4 models):
http://wxman57.com/images/LSE12Z08.JPG

Wxman. Tomorrow is my birthday. Hint. I had just turned nine when Donna struck a few days later.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty good consensus this evening that Lee might not have peaked last night. The unexpected shear will begin to lessen as soon as tomorrow morning, where we should see a ramp up in intensity going into Sunday.

[LarryWx]

It looks like ~5 (10%) of the 12Z EPS members through hour 240 have a US landfall with all on ME. If there are no more after 240 (probably the case), that would mean a drop from the 14% US landfalls on the 0Z and the 24% on yesterday's 12Z, which had the most.

So, assuming 10% is it for the 12z, here is the running EPS tally of US landfalls:


9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME)

9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%)
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%)
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

Based on the trend of the latest two EPS runs as well as overall model consensus trends, I'm dropping the chance for a US landfall from 20% to 10% and with that mostly for ME. I won't go lower because it is still 10% on the 12Z EPS and the 12Z GEFS also has 10% (3 members hit 9/15-18 with one on each of ME, MA, and RI). To go lower than 10% with any potential hit still 7-10 days away along with the 10% of ensemble members having hits would seem premature.

[wxman57]

Wxman. Tomorrow is my birthday. Hint. I had just turned nine when Donna struck a few days later.

I'll have Lee send you some big waves a few days after your birthday. Get your surf board ready. If you were born 9 years before Donna (1960), then you are about 6 years older than I am. Maybe just watch the big waves roll in vs. surfing them.