ATL: LEE - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not looking at tracks but at the synoptic pattern over the last couple of runs are picking up on the fact that Idalia is not going to be looping around but it will instead go out leaving ridging behind. The GFS loves to take storms and ram them into a ridge in the long term so you really cant trust the track but you can look at what it is being put on the table. The trough lifts out before the feature gets there. Again, it is several days out and something needs to develop first. There are going to be swings back and forth, but again...look at the conditions the models are showing more than the track, because the models do some bonkers things with tracks long term that never seem to make sense

[chris_fit]

W shift on the 12z Euro in the long range. Probably just noise.

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

By the way, it looked to me like the TVCN and UK trended further south and west when comparing last night's 0Z and this a.m.'s 12Z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

W shift on the 12z Euro in the long range. Probably just noise.

No, this is the models figuring out that Idalia is not going to be there to affect the synoptic pattern.
The Canadian slamming it into New England would be very concerning if that played out

[SFLcane]

W shift on the 12z Euro in the long range. Probably just noise.

No, this is the models figuring out that Idalia is not going to be there to affect the synoptic pattern

+1

[IcyTundra]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/59Sb066t/bbbbbdddd.gif

Lack of strong steering as it really slows down at the end of the run. Everything is up in the air right now with the future of 95L.

[Blown Away]

Nearly every hurricane that impacted NE Caribbean or CONUS was modeled OTS at some point. Euro continues to show drifting from @200-240 hours. The likely outcome is OTS, but that slowdown says there is a fine line.

[jlauderdal]

:double:

Looks ridgy to me

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 944mb 114kt Storm at the end of the run.

17.1N 55W

[blp]

Upper pattern still very much in flux.

Euro Tend:


GFS Trend:

[LarryWx]

By the way, it looked to me like the TVCN and UK trended further south and west when comparing last night's 0Z and this a.m.'s 12Z.

UKMET 0Z 168: 0000UTC 10.09.2023 168 19.5N 62.1W 1005 32

UKMET 12Z 156: 0000UTC 10.09.2023 156 20.6N 64.0W 1002 49

So, 12Z UK at 156 is a bit WNW of 0Z at 168 and stronger.


Here's the complete 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.3N 44.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2023 72 14.3N 44.1W 1009 27
0000UTC 07.09.2023 84 14.7N 46.4W 1008 36
1200UTC 07.09.2023 96 15.7N 48.7W 1007 34
0000UTC 08.09.2023 108 16.4N 51.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 08.09.2023 120 17.2N 54.8W 1005 36
0000UTC 09.09.2023 132 18.1N 58.1W 1004 36
1200UTC 09.09.2023 144 19.3N 61.4W 1003 44
0000UTC 10.09.2023 156 20.6N 64.0W 1002 49
1200UTC 10.09.2023 168 21.5N 67.3W 1000 54

Looking at H5, there is a pretty strong persistent E coast trough and stationary TX strong (594 dm) ridge. The trough is stronger than it is on the other models. If that were to verify, that would imo likely recurve it away from the SE US like the model consensus is still suggesting. However, from NC Outer Banks north wouldn't be as clearcut. Again, this is strictly per the 12Z UKMET rather than a forecast.

H5: scroll down

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 1200z.html

[Spacecoast]

12z EPS:

[aspen]

HWRF 944mb 114kt Storm at the end of the run.

17.1N 55W

It has a nuclear environment for 95L at the end of its run: great UL ventilation while tracking over SSTs as high as 29.0-29.5C. Looks like it would miss the islands if the run went out another day or two.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1698422294253555950

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

HWRF 944mb 114kt Storm at the end of the run.

17.1N 55W

HAFS-B ends at 126 knots.

[LarryWx]

 When looking at the 12Z EPS 228 vs 0Z EPS 240, the consensus is similarly keeping the risk to the corridor from the NE Caribbean to the Bahamas pretty low (~10% based on 5 of 51 hitting Bahamas) and to the region well east that includes Bermuda significantly higher. The bulk of the members cross into the box that covers 22-32N, 60-70W. (Bermuda is near 32N, 65W.) Hardly any are (aiming) west of 75W. Verbatim, this run suggests very low risk to the CONUS/Canada (similar to the 0Z run).
There are many strong hurricanes again this run.

[SFLcane]

[blp]

10 days out is a long time... Reminds of Irma we were talking about the uncertainty with the weakness.

[Cachondo23]

10 days out is a long time... Reminds of Irma we were talking about the uncertainty with the weakness.


https://i.imgur.io/v0dcaSP_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

https://i.imgur.io/n9Dq3dB_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

And we know that the real track was more south than that forecast…