ATL: LEE - Models

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs:


9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

[mantis83]

The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs:


9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME)
9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 
9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY)
9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ)
9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA)
9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA)
9/6 0Z: 5 (10%)
9/5 12Z: 2 (4%)
9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 
9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 
9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

good news!

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Continuing to look like it will thread the needle between CONUS and Bermuda. That would be a lucky path (although Atlantic Canada is still under the gun)

[LarryWx]

6Z GEFS: 5 (16%) US hits (3 ME, 1 NY, 1 NJ) (9/16-7) vs 3 on prior 3 runs. Just passing along facts. Use the info however one wishes. I still think the chance is low (~10%) but still not yet near zero. Still too far out with runs like this.

[wxman57]

Latest ensemble guidance. Passes west of Bermuda but still will likely produce 40-50 mph winds there. Well east of Cape Cod but may produce 35-45 mph wind there next weekend, since TS winds will extend over 200 miles west of the center and about 300 miles east of the center.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is my takeaway given the latest trend and NHC five day forecast - Lee is forecast to turn north between 60 and 70 west, it is very unlikely that any hurricane that turns north before 75 west much less 70 west will make a direct landfall between East Port, ME, and Cape Hatteras, NC, Nova Scotia is another matter more so the areas east of Halifax. I've examined the history of tropical systems impacting New England extensively because I once wanted to write a book about the subject. If the pre-70 west turn does happen Lee will likely not make landfall anywhere other than NS or Newfoundland.

[mantis83]

Here is my takeaway given the latest trend and NHC five day forecast - Lee is forecast to turn north between 60 and 70 west, it is very unlikely that any hurricane that turns north before 75 west much less 70 west will make a direct landfall between East Port, ME, and Cape Hatteras, NC, Nova Scotia is another matter more so the areas east of Halifax. I've examined the history of tropical systems impacting New England extensively because I once wanted to write a book about the subject. If the pre-70 west turn does happen Lee will likely not make landfall anywhere other than NS or Newfoundland.

very sound reasoning

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS once again has Lee stalling offshore Nova Scotia, this time not even making "landfall" until it's dropped 20+ MB and is no longer producing any kind of even substantial winds.

The threat of Lee to everyone in the North East has decreased rapidly over the last 18-24 hours.

I think eventually Lee is just going to burn itself out offshore and/or curve East of even Nova Scotia.

[BobHarlem]

The GFS once again has Lee stalling offshore Nova Scotia, this time not even making "landfall" with its remnants and just heading out to sea.

The threat of Lee to everyone in the North East has decreased rapidly over the last 18-24 hours.

If it weren't for Margot I might agree with that, but I don't believe the GFS (or euro for that matter) has a good grasp of it.

[brad512]

With that stall scenario even if it did eventually make "landfall" on Nova Scotia it wouldn't be much more than a normal rainy day with maybe 50km/h gusts tops, I remember Teddy was like that for all but maybe a tiny area of Cape Breton on the east side of the center and only for like 2-3 hours.

[wxman57]

The GFS once again has Lee stalling offshore Nova Scotia, this time not even making "landfall" until it's dropped 20+ MB and is no longer producing any kind of even substantial winds.

The threat of Lee to everyone in the North East has decreased rapidly over the last 18-24 hours.

I think eventually Lee is just going to burn itself out offshore and/or curve East of even Nova Scotia.

Not sure what you're looking at, but the 12Z GFS has Lee accelerating right across Nova Scotia.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Here is my takeaway given the latest trend and NHC five day forecast - Lee is forecast to turn north between 60 and 70 west, it is very unlikely that any hurricane that turns north before 75 west much less 70 west will make a direct landfall between East Port, ME, and Cape Hatteras, NC, Nova Scotia is another matter more so the areas east of Halifax. I've examined the history of tropical systems impacting New England extensively because I once wanted to write a book about the subject. If the pre-70 west turn does happen Lee will likely not make landfall anywhere other than NS or Newfoundland.

There are ensemble members that still depict a Maine landfall if Lee gets closer than expected to the Bahamas. That's about the only risk I'd say the US has. How likely is that to occur? Doesn't seem much but crazier things have happened.

[Landy]

12z Euro back aboard the idea of another C5 peak in a few days.

[RevanTheJedi96]

12z Euro is bringing Lee a lot closer to New England now. This does not look like a typical eastern Nova Scotia hit.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro shifted way left/west at 192 hours out

[PavelGaborik10]

The GFS once again has Lee stalling offshore Nova Scotia, this time not even making "landfall" until it's dropped 20+ MB and is no longer producing any kind of even substantial winds.

The threat of Lee to everyone in the North East has decreased rapidly over the last 18-24 hours.

I think eventually Lee is just going to burn itself out offshore and/or curve East of even Nova Scotia.

Not sure what you're looking at, but the 12Z GFS has Lee accelerating right across Nova Scotia.

GFS phases the storm about 24 hours earlier, rapidly burning itself in the ocean and coming ashore as an extra tropical mess with little to no punch left windwise.

Very reminiscent of Teddy, which was also a non event for Atlantic Canadians.

[Landy]

12z Euro is throwing water on the idea that this won't impact CONUS significantly. Many have harped this, but gonna say it again: it's not a fish storm until it's already well on its way out to sea.

[PavelGaborik10]

Euro shifts another 500 or so miles W, has landfall in Maine now a whopping 8-9 days out.

[hohnywx]

Well I think that Euro run just caused a stir for some people. Wasn't expecting that!

[PavelGaborik10]

12z Euro is throwing water on the idea that this won't impact CONUS significantly. Many have harped this, but it's not a fish storm until it's already well on its way out to sea.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1150140468722679899/index.png
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1150141032646852728/9-km_ECMWF_USA_Cities_Northeast_US_Precip_Type__MSLP.gif

The Euro can't decide on whether to be a far east or far west outlier.

The only thing it's been consistent on previously is seemingly making every run 12-24 hours slower than the previous one.