ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like the Dreaded Pinhole eye is on its way to Idalia...

There isn't any evidence of an eye in the infrared satellite — everything in the CDO still looks very cold to me. I would think that a look through the CDO all the way to the warm surface would be pretty easily seen in the IR images.

Very likely the outflow from the towers are eclipsing the eye on IR.
Really need to watch radar.

[Iceresistance]

I can't do WeatherNerds Satellite, they're having load capacity overload.

This is why I can't post images from them

[Sciencerocks]

[FLLurker32]

At this point, all I'm going to say is that I'm getting more concerned about the West Coast of Florida, especially the Tampa Bay region, and really hope for the best for anybody in the danger zone. Idalia is not playing games at the moment.

Tampa Bay is mentioned a lot and rightfully so because of how far inland the surge can go BUT I can’t express enough to all of you how much more populated the areas north of it are compared to even 5 years ago. Much of the FL population boom since 2020 has been in central FL. Spring Hill to to cedar Key and all areas inland would be devastated if anything major were to hit.

[zzzh]

Buoy pressure rose nearly 1mb in 30min , I think the center is still moving to the south.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Local weather folks are starting to sound the alarms in Tampa Bay today, but primarily regarding the likelihood of some minor coastal flooding should this scoot north offshore on its way to the big bend area. Last I saw, they were still talking Tropical Storm effects here, but a CAT1 landing. Reason being, is that we will be in a full moon phase tuesday night, being the highest tide of the month already, before she goes by...let alone if she hits more directly as seems to be the trending thought tonight.

[tropicwatch]

When is recon scheduled on site?

About 1:30am central time. Hope they get off the ground this time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Local weather folks are starting to sound the alarms in Tampa Bay today, but primarily regarding the likelihood of some minor coastal flooding should this scoot north offshore on its way to the big bend area. Last I saw, they were still talking Tropical Storm effects here, but a CAT1 landing. Reason being, is that we will be in a full moon phase tuesday night, being the highest tide of the month already, before she goes by...let alone if she hits more directly as seems to be the trending thought tonight.

What is the tidal spread in Tampa Bay between low and high tide?

[Clearcloudz]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1695962309032866017

[Full8s]

Isn't it supposed to be a full moon in the next couple of days? I don't know how much tides play on the west coast of FL

Yes. And I think I heard it's the closest the moon will be all year so that translates to stronger tides which could contribute to surge numbers for sure.

[GCANE]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

[LandoWill]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values.

https://i.imgur.com/8h7MwE4.png

https://i.imgur.com/7rlYm5J.jpg

People mention " big bend" big bend storms do little to nothing to tampa... Now if it hits in the smaller bend below the big end, then you gotta talk about hernando beach area homes, which are on stits etc.. aripeka area etc.. they flood almost all the way to US19 during big storms. So as long it stays big bend area and not little "end" area, i think tampa area will be ok. THAT BEING SAID.. THAT DOES NOT MEAN NOT TO PREPARE... Right now, NHC has it right on the "right" goalpost of little end/big bend.. if it goes south/east that's a problem from this point onward for the bay area north to wikiwachi.

[caneman]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values. Worst possible angle of approach for us as far as tides go.

https://i.imgur.com/8h7MwE4.png

https://i.imgur.com/7rlYm5J.jpg

Crazy surge values. Right now they're calling for up to 6 ft. I think we also have some type of super moon with higher than normal tides as well expected.

[wx98]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values.

https://i.imgur.com/8h7MwE4.png

https://i.imgur.com/7rlYm5J.jpg

I agree. I was thinking a few minutes ago about an intensifying landfalling Cat 4 into Pinellas County and moving northeast directly down Interstate 4 to Daytona would be a worst-case scenario.

[caneman]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

That was Irma

[blp]

Look at the last few images.

[LandoWill]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

That was Irma

Irma ripped the bark off trees here in land o lakes, we are not all that far from I75 either, so we aren't exactly coastal .

[GCANE]

Looks like the towers backed off a bit and eye maybe coming up on IR

[Blown Away]

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 40, 995, TS,

Idalia sheard a little or that COC is still moving SE??