ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

I’ll be honest, it’s so nice tracking a clear eye vs trying to figure out where the broad COC will consolidate…

[TheDreamTraveler]

What makes this even more historic is where Lee did this in the atlantic basin this far out.

[GCANE]

I have a feeling this will be a big-ass monster when it gets close to the coast

[ElectricStorm]

Eye has cooled a bit over the past hour or so per ADT, although it's still +20.9C

[eastcoastFL]

IR shows a big mesovort forming on the SW eyewall

What does that mean? Increasing chances of EWRC?

Yes

How fast can a storm like this complete an EWRC?

[WalterWhite]

Eye has cooled a bit over the past hour or so per ADT, although it's still +20.9C

Does that mean intensification or weakening?

[HurricaneBelle]

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I’ll be honest, it’s so nice tracking a clear eye vs trying to figure out where the broad COC will consolidate…

or wondering if recon will find a west wind

[ElectricStorm]

Eye has cooled a bit over the past hour or so per ADT, although it's still +20.9C

Does that mean intensification or weakening?

A cooling eye would mean weakening, but ADT can fluctuate sometimes

[IsabelaWeather]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

[HurricaneBelle]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

everyone wants to be the first to spot an EWRC

[canebeard]

What makes this even more historic is where Lee did this in the atlantic basin this far out.

Hugo did this in a very similar location, and went down to 918, after being 990 the day before.

[imgur][/imgur]

[GCANE]

What does that mean? Increasing chances of EWRC?

Yes

How fast can a storm like this complete an EWRC?

Good question
I think it depends on the size of the outer eyewall.
Haven't seen any papers that try and calculate that.
Doesn't mean there is something out there.

[Iceresistance]

Eye has cooled a bit over the past hour or so per ADT, although it's still +20.9C

ADT can miss the warmest eye temperature.

[Cyclenall]

Calculated probability of an EWRC has increased significantly

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... leERC.html

That's a neat page/tool product from CIMSS, thanks for bringing it up. I don't get the eye size being in the degrees unit, currently at 0.30

[IsabelaWeather]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

everyone wants to be the first to spot an EWRC

Very true, and I get it. It just gets tiresome.

Lee looks stunning right now, also looks to be moving mostly west. I hope it passes closer to PR than expected, but still well offshore of all islands lol.

[GCANE]

Interesting there is no feeder band.
Not picking up any aerial fuel like CAPE or TPW.
Energy is coming all from the water.
The microwave soundings are sketchy, but what I can tell is that the anomalous temperature above the water is not that cool.
So, heat transfer is not all that great.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Off-hand, the only storm that I can think of that blew up quite as quickly as Lee did was Maria.

Wilma

Nope, Wilma wandered around as a TD/TS for a few days before going ballistic.

[eastcoastFL]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

The data shows the odds of an impending EWRC are increasing. I haven’t heard anyone say they’ve spotted one though.

[Iceresistance]

I just have to LOL. These threads always chime in about something when there isnt any data.
Strong storms its always a EWRC. So far there is no data to suggest one, last MW showed no evidence of one, yet its popped up so many times already. There will probably be one, but lets wait until there is legit evidence to show one.

The data shows the odds of an impending EWRC are increasing. I haven’t heard anyone say they’ve spotted one though.

The eye has shrunken on IR, it is usually a sign, but it hasn't gotten any smaller rapidly or any indication for an outer eyewall on satellite or MW passes.
Recon may make another pass soon; they are the concrete truth to confirm if there is an outer eyewall or not (double wind maxima)

[zzzh]

NW FL145 SFMR 157