SPAC: HALE - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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SPAC: HALE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:58 pm

SH, 93, 2023010400, , BEST, 0, 186S, 1403E, 15, 1004, DB


https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 932023.dat
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 93P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 05, 2023 8:59 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.1S 142.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER
LAND, MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 93P

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:42 am

TCFA.

WTPS21 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7S 151.1E TO 22.2S 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 151.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 149.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 151.4, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHWEST OF CATO ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD, FRAGMENTED BUT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING INTO THE LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT 93P IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET BY MEDIUM TO HIGH (20-25KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 93P

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:49 pm

SH, 93, 2023010618, , BEST, 0, 199S, 1532E, 35, 995, TS


Image
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Re: SPAC: SEVEN-P - Tropical Cyclone

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2023 4:06 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone 07P

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:23 pm

SH, 07, 2023010700, , BEST, 0, 205S, 1551E, 40, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 55, 75, 0, 0, 1001, 185, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,


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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone 07P

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:26 am

Image

Image
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Re: SPAC: HALE - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby Subtrop » Sat Jan 07, 2023 11:24 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 080134 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HALE [HAY-ILL] CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7S
166.0E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMMAWARI VIS/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD BUT COOLER SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE
STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH ABOUT 0.6 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL. DT=3.0, MET = 3.0 AND PT = 3.0. FT BASED ON MET. THUS,
YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 26.4S 170.5E MOV ESE AT 22 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 28.2S 175.0E MOV ESE AT 22 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 31.1S 178.4E MOV ESE AT 21 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 34.4S 179.5E MOV SE AT 19 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HALE
[HAY-ILL].
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