WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W.INVEST

96W INVEST 230104 0000 7.3N 115.4E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 041200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041200Z-050600ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
13.9E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041100Z HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE
DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF
FLARING AND DEEPENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 96W IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND
BURST THROUGHOUT THE REGION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 30
KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 96W AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA OVER THE COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.