SPAC: INVEST 95P

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95P INVEST 230107 0000 23.6S 170.2E SHEM 25 1002

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.6S
170.4E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ORGANIZED IN A WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL PATTERN, OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 071055Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS WAS ABLE
TO SINGLE OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC THAT WAS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED DO TO
THE LAND INTERACTION WITH NEW CALEDONIA AND OTHER SURROUNDING ISLANDS.
THE EARLIER ASCAT INDICATED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST, WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INDICATIVE OF
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 95P TAKING A
STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY, REMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY SEPARATE
FROM TC 07P THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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SH, 95, 2023010800, , BEST, 0, 230S, 1726E, 30, 1001, TD

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.5S
177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI. REANALYSIS OF
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT INVEST 95P
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED 35 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SMAP
PASS FROM 080642Z SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A LATER 080734Z GPM 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, SUBSEQUENT
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWED THE SYSTEM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER,
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS UP TO THE PRESENT TIME, THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER SHEAR, WITH THE CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AT 081500Z. BY
081700Z, AS WE APPROACH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, A SYMMETRICAL
BLOOM OF CONVECTION HAS ONCE MORE FIRED UP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES REMAIN AT
T1.0 (25 KNOTS) BUT ARE NOT LIKELY HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL DUE TO ITS
SMALL SIZE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH DEPICTING 95P AND
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE STRONGER WIND FIELD AS INDICATED BY THE
SCATTEROMETER AND SMAP. OVERALL, MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 07P TO
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS CLEARLY OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
FLIRT WITH THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, ESPECIALLY NEAR DIURNAL MAXIMUM, BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A TIME MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.5S 177.8E IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AND COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
(STT) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IDENTIFIABLE VIA
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AS IT APPROACHES THE STRONG GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH, STT
AND INCORPORATION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY WILL BE INEVITABLE. THEREFOR IT IS
NO LONGER A SUSPECT AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.