#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:23 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 61.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 151454Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND PERSISTENT BROAD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SST VALUES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE
THE FORMATION OF INVEST 90S AS WELL AS INVEST 96S, WHICH IS 1000NM TO
THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE 15/1200Z GFS RUN INDICATES 90S WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ECMWF
(15/0600Z RUN) FAVORS INVEST 96S BUT INDICATES A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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