SIO: INVEST 90S

[cycloneye]

SH, 90, 2023011400, , BEST, 0, 87S, 557E, 15, 1010, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 902023.dat

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S
61.7E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A
141700Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 90S HAS LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT BUT LOW (10-
15KT) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SST ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT MEANDERS
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0S 61.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 151454Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND PERSISTENT BROAD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SST VALUES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE
THE FORMATION OF INVEST 90S AS WELL AS INVEST 96S, WHICH IS 1000NM TO
THE EAST, HOWEVER, THE 15/1200Z GFS RUN INDICATES 90S WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. ECMWF
(15/0600Z RUN) FAVORS INVEST 96S BUT INDICATES A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5S 54.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 688 NM NORTH OF
MAURITIUS. HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ITS FINAL MOMENTS AS IT
PREPARES TO BE ABSORBED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT. 90S IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.