SPAC: IRENE - Post-Tropical

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SPAC: IRENE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby zzzh » Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:23 pm

91P INVEST 230115 1800 15.9S 159.1E SHEM 15 1006
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:40 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.2S
157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 596 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 161702Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ON THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS EASILY IDENTIFIED BY THE BULLSEYE
PASS FROM A 162221Z ASCAT METOP-B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW, AND LOW (5-10KT) VWS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:23 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 159.4E APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. AN
171051Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS PROVIDED GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND SHOWED THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STRENGTHENING, AT LEAST ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE CENTER, WITH 30-33 KNOT WINDS
PRESENT ABOUT 75NM NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (27-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (15-25KT) VWS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE CURRENTLY A EXPERIENCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AXIS TILT, THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY SYMMETERIZE AND COMMENCE INTENSIFICATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
LATEST COAMPS-TC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS THE HWRF,
INDICATE A MODERATE CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BETWEEN NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:46 am

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#5 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:30 pm

ASCAT indicates it's nearing TC strength. Definitely qualifies as a depression, though Fiji is calling it a "disturbance".
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 05F

#6 Postby zzzh » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:ASCAT indicates it's nearing TC strength. Definitely qualifies as a depression, though Fiji is calling it a "disturbance".

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 172001 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 160.5E
AT 171800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY. TD05F
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE NER LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 18.2S 163.1E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 19.2S 166.5E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 20.9S 170.2E MOV ESE AT 19 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 23.0S 173.3E MOV ESE AT 19 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 180200 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Depression 05F

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:51 pm

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:31 am

Fiji Meteorological Service
·
Tropical Cyclone Irene Develops
West of Vanuatu
Tropical Depression TD05F developed into a tropical cyclone and named Tropical CYclone (TC) Irene at 6pm this evening while located to the west of Vanuatu.
It is a category 1 system with maximum winds near the center 65km/hr with gusts up to 90km/hr.
TC Irene is expected to move southeast between New Caledonia and southern Vanuatu.
For Vanuatu and New Caledonia nationals, please refer to Advisories and warnings provided by the 2 respective National Weather Services.


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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:07 am

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:13 am

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:30 pm

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:04 pm

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:45 am

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:14 am

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Re: SPAC: IRENE - Post-Tropical

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:12 pm

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