Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:15 pm

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#22 Postby Landy » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:00 pm

Looks like latest surface analysis shows that it's nearly detached, if not already. With an appearance like this, I would classify. Image
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#23 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:30 pm

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#24 Postby bahamaswx » Sun Jan 15, 2023 10:39 pm

If this presentation persists into the morning I can't see how it could continue to be ignored.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#25 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:13 am

2016, 2006, 1978, 1955, and 1938 are the only years on record with a January storm of at least minimal TS or STS strength. Will 2023 make it into that unusual group of years?
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#26 Postby Landy » Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:32 am

Image
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#27 Postby Landy » Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:26 am

Arlene looks pretty good... is what I would be saying if this were designated hours ago. :lol:
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#28 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:56 am

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#29 Postby jconsor » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:11 am

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#30 Postby aspen » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:01 am

NHC still isn’t biting as far as I’m aware. They’ve seemingly become more hesitant to upgrade shorties after 2020/21, but this is a little ridiculous. This isn’t another Odette, it’s an actually very good looking probable subtropical cyclone.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:19 am

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#32 Postby NDG » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:21 am

We definitely have a subtropical system this morning over the relatively "warm" gulf stream.

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:26 am

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#34 Postby ChrisH-UK » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:02 am

For a cyclone in January it looks in pretty decent shape this morning.

GOES-16 Red Band Loop = https://col.st/hD9dq

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:04 am

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast= Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#36 Postby Ryxn » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:41 am

Best looking "unnamable" storm I have seen in a while! Honestly, it's starting to look like a hurricane in the most recent few frames. And water temperatures show 22-23C for a good bit. Just needs the upper atmosphere to be cold enough for continuous genesis....how else do storms like Alex in January 2016 form much more EAST than this system and how Ophelia reached CAT3 that far northeast?

But yeah it's almost laughable that we may ALREADY have a candidate for post-season upgrade in 2024 THIS early in the year. This storm looks better than all the shorties in 2021 COMBINED in my opinion.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast= Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#37 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:09 am

I do not like the argue with the experts, I have been taught valuable lessons on that from some is this forum in fact. Yet I cannot help but question the NHC a little bit on this one. ASCAT imagery shows this system is clearly detached from any fronts, their is a shallow warm core with it, convection has persisted for the last day or so, and winds are supportive of tropical storm intensity. Given this, I really have no idea why this hasn’t been named Arlene, but maybe a post season analysis will be done? Personally I’m going to count this one in my personal season totals list. If the experts agree that this should be named, then I’ll take that stance too.

I still support the NHC though of course, I just think they have gotten much more strict with naming…perhaps they will only name storms that form within the June 1st through November 30th time frame going forward?
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast= Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#38 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:10 pm

Word from an anonymous source at the NHC is that the NHC is not going to be naming short-lived subtropical storms like this. There is a good chance it will be reclassified as a subtropical storm post-season, though.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast= Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#39 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:18 pm

NHC did not name the December 2013 subtropical storm operationally, and noted in the TCR that NHC is allowed to handle marginal subtropical cyclones operationally as marine features. Perhaps they are doing the same thing here.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast= Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued

#40 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 12:21 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:NHC did not name the December 2013 subtropical storm operationally, and noted in the TCR that NHC is allowed to handle marginal subtropical cyclones operationally as marine features. Perhaps they are doing the same thing here.


That's what a source at the NHC is saying they are doing with this system.
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