Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:34 pm

Yikes, what a core.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#62 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:34 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This does remind me somewhat as well of the Nor'easter of January 1992 that curled back into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think that one will be added to HURDAT when reanalysis gets to the early 1990s.



Reminds me of Alex of 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alex_(2016)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:35 pm



I'd pull the trigger on it and give it advisories for Tropical Storm Arlene there personally.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:37 pm

They have been tracking it since Sunday at 12z.

AL, 90, 2023011512, , BEST, 0, 373N, 697W, 45, 989, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011518, , BEST, 0, 376N, 689W, 45, 989, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011600, , BEST, 0, 376N, 683W, 45, 989, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011606, , BEST, 0, 373N, 673W, 50, 986, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011612, , BEST, 0, 370N, 657W, 50, 986, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, al712023 to al902023,
AL, 90, 2023011612, , BEST, 0, 370N, 657W, 50, 986, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, al712023 to al902023,
AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 986, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 986, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#65 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:39 pm

Looks fully tropical with a closed eyewall. I do not understand why this is not named. More than any other storm ever.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#66 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:41 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#67 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:42 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Looks fully tropical with a closed eyewall. I do not understand why this is not named. More than any other storm ever.


It would be almost a criminal injustice for Colin 2022 to get a name and this one to not. Like, yes, Colin 2022 did meet the raw requirements for a TS, but this thing looks so much healthier and more bona fide than Colin 2022 haha
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#68 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:44 pm

From the NHC site, the official definition of a tropical cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

I would argue it checks all the boxes. It's warm core, non-frontal, over subtropical waters, solid core and convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#69 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:45 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Looks fully tropical with a closed eyewall. I do not understand why this is not named. More than any other storm ever.


It would be almost a criminal injustice for Teresa 2021 to get a name and this one to not. Like, yes, Teresa 2021 did meet the raw requirements for a TS, but this thing looks so much healthier and more bona fide than Teresa 2021haha
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#70 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:03 pm

It looks like an actual hurricane. Curious as to how this system has managed to appear nearly fully tropical over marginal SSTs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#71 Postby Nuno » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:04 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It looks like an actual hurricane. Curious as to how this system has managed to appear nearly fully tropical over marginal SSTs.


At the very least this is a 50kt-60kt cyclone. I don't see why they're dragging their feet on naming this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#72 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:08 pm

Patrick99 wrote:It looks like an actual hurricane. Curious as to how this system has managed to appear nearly fully tropical over marginal SSTs.



Very cold upper levels allowing for a vertical temperature differeration, which allows for air to "rise" leading to condensation leading to convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#73 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:23 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:28 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#75 Postby JetFuel_SE » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This does remind me somewhat as well of the Nor'easter of January 1992 that curled back into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think that one will be added to HURDAT when reanalysis gets to the early 1990s.

Sooo... like in the 2040s?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:34 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This does remind me somewhat as well of the Nor'easter of January 1992 that curled back into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think that one will be added to HURDAT when reanalysis gets to the early 1990s.

Sooo... like in the 2040s?


There are likely 4 more reanalyses before then, so I suspect about 10 years away at the current rate unless things get expedited. The next one is 1971-75 (hopefully late this year).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#77 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:35 pm

Meso sector loop impressive.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#78 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This does remind me somewhat as well of the Nor'easter of January 1992 that curled back into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think that one will be added to HURDAT when reanalysis gets to the early 1990s.

Sooo... like in the 2040s?


There are likely 4 more reanalyses before then, so I suspect about 10 years away at the current rate unless things get expedited. The next one is 1971-75 (hopefully late this year).


NHC does perform a post-analysis after every season, so there's a decent chance that this could get added to the database this winter.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#79 Postby AJC3 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:48 pm

As a reminder, questioning and criticism of NHC in cases like this are fine, just as long as you do it in a respectful manner.

Think about your choices of words before you hit the 'Submit" key.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#80 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Jan 16, 2023 4:08 pm

IMO this is 100% sub-tropical and nameable. May be any inconsequential system but I would name it

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