SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#301 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:41 am

Bulletin of March 8 at 4:20 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.20 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 975 hPa.

Position on March 08 at 4 p.m. local time: 21.0 South / 40.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1570 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1050 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#302 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:39 am

The GFS is the only model that doesn't take Freddy inland to its death in Mozambique. Working on advisory #104 now...
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6627
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#303 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:31 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Theoretically we could have a Cabo Verde hurricane that tracks across the Atlantic, recurves near North America, then is forced down back into the MDR and once again travels across the Atlantic to then bury itself into Texas or something. If we ever get a storm named Freddy in the Atlantic...


Has there ever been a simulation done to see if that's possible? I've wondered this but the trouble is when the low is pushed back down to the MDR typically its in the process of being destoryed or there is some complication. The sim would give us an idea how rare of an occurrence it is.


Stunning, nothing like it. :12:

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:These Radarsat SAR passes over Cyclone Freddy yesterday (Mar 7) were ~13hrs apart and show how the system quickly intensified during that period. The 02:47Z pass found max winds of 78kts, while the 15:43Z pass found 95kts, and the RMW had contracted from 11nmi (20km) to 8nmi (15km)!

I've never seen these Radarsat products before, is this what they were back in the day stating Nextrad in space was going to be? We'll be seeing this a lot going forward but yet no fanfare when its released...
0 likes   

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#304 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:50 am

Cyclenall wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Theoretically we could have a Cabo Verde hurricane that tracks across the Atlantic, recurves near North America, then is forced down back into the MDR and once again travels across the Atlantic to then bury itself into Texas or something. If we ever get a storm named Freddy in the Atlantic...


Has there ever been a simulation done to see if that's possible? I've wondered this but the trouble is when the low is pushed back down to the MDR typically its in the process of being destoryed or there is some complication. The sim would give us an idea how rare of an occurrence it is.


Stunning, nothing like it. :12:

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:These Radarsat SAR passes over Cyclone Freddy yesterday (Mar 7) were ~13hrs apart and show how the system quickly intensified during that period. The 02:47Z pass found max winds of 78kts, while the 15:43Z pass found 95kts, and the RMW had contracted from 11nmi (20km) to 8nmi (15km)!

I've never seen these Radarsat products before, is this what they were back in the day stating Nextrad in space was going to be? We'll be seeing this a lot going forward but yet no fanfare when its released...


The imagery comes from here - https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/m ... ear=latest
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#305 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:30 pm

Downgraded.

Bulletin of March 8 at 10:54 p.m. local time in Reunion (9.54 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


SEVERE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 982 hPa.

Position on March 08 at 10 p.m. local time: 20.9 South / 39.9 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1590 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1050 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY weakened into a strong tropical storm this evening in an environment less favorable to its development. This weakening trend could continue tomorrow before a possible resumption of intensification on Friday when FREDDY approaches the coast of Mozambique.

-FREDDY is expected to make landfall Friday late afternoon or the following night near the boundary between Zambezi and Sofala provinces. This timing as well as the intensity of the system on arrival are still quite uncertain.

-Nevertheless, the weather conditions should deteriorate on the coasts of Mozambique from Friday on the province of Zambezi and the north of the province of Sofala with possible destructive or even devastating winds, dangerous seas and heavy rains. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to listen to the instructions of the local authorities.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#306 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 08, 2023 4:28 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3866
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#307 Postby AJC3 » Wed Mar 08, 2023 5:35 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#308 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:43 pm

I forget, how much ACE has Freddy generated in total and how far is it away from Ioke?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#309 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:12 pm

Bulletin of March 09 at 04:42 local time in Reunion (03.42 local time in Mayotte):

A low pressure system is currently present over the South West Indian Ocean.


SEVERE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 978 hPa.

Position on March 09 at 04 local time: 20.7 South / 39.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1610 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1040 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: WEST-NORTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY is evolving in an environment less favorable to its development and has been downgraded to a strong tropical storm since the beginning of last night. This weakening trend could continue today before a possible resumption of intensification next night or Friday when FREDDY makes final approach to the coast of Mozambique.

-FREDDY is expected to make landfall Friday late afternoon or the following night near the boundary between Zambezi and Sofala provinces. This timing as well as the intensity of the system on arrival are still quite uncertain.

- The weather conditions will therefore deteriorate on the coast of Mozambique from Friday on the province of Zambezi and the north of the province of Sofala. Destructive or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rain are possible near the arrival area of ​​the center on land. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to listen to the instructions of the local authorities.

- From Saturday, the heavy rains associated with FREDDY could spread to the interior of Mozambique as well as to the extreme south of Malawi.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#310 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:12 am

Freddy, GEO Colour Loop 0930z

Source - https://col.st/VKSeV

2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#311 Postby aspen » Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:55 am

The HWRF looks like it’s starting to cave to the slower GFS solution. So far the Euro still rapidly kills Freddy once and for all after landfall.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#312 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:59 am

Bulletin of March 09 at 4:42 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.42 p.m. local time in Mayotte):

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 110 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 155 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 978 hPa.

Position on March 09 at 4 p.m. local time: 19.9 South / 38.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1710 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1040 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 9 km/h.

System Information:

- Strong tropical storm FREDDY continues to evolve in the Mozambique Channel moving northwest.

- FREDDY should touch the coast of Mozambique on Friday evening or during the following night, probably in the western part of the Zambezi province near Quelimane. It will then probably be at the stage of a tropical cyclone or even an intense tropical cyclone.

- The weather conditions will therefore deteriorate from Friday morning in the province of Zambezi and the north of the province of Sofala. Damaging or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rain are likely near the center's arrival area on land. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to listen to the instructions of the local authorities.

- From Saturday, FREDDY should sink inland while weakening. But it will continue to generate heavy rains in the interior of Mozambique as well as southern Malawi.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#313 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:30 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#314 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:26 am

aspen wrote:The HWRF looks like it’s starting to cave to the slower GFS solution. So far the Euro still rapidly kills Freddy once and for all after landfall.


Not surprising, since the two models are related. GFS remains all by itself in moving it to the coast then back offshore, though. We've been issuing advisories on Freddy since February 2nd. Time for Freddy to move inland and die!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#315 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 12:11 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#316 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:54 pm

0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Severe Tropical Storm

#317 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 4:18 pm

Bulletin of March 09 at 10:01 p.m. local in Reunion (9:01 p.m. local in Mayotte):



TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 976 hPa.

Position on March 09 at 10 p.m. local time: 19.2 South / 38.8 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1725 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 980 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-NORTH-WEST, at 11 km/h.

System Information:

- The inhabitants of Mozambique and Malawi are invited to listen to the instructions of the local authorities.

- Tropical Cyclone FREDDY continues to evolve in the Mozambique Channel moving northwest and intensifying.

- FREDDY should touch the coast of Mozambique on Friday evening or during the following night, probably in the western part of the Zambezi province near Quelimane. It will then probably be at the intense tropical cyclone stage.

- The weather conditions will therefore deteriorate from Friday morning in the province of Zambezi and the north of the province of Sofala. Damaging or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rain are likely near the center's arrival area on land.

- From Saturday, FREDDY should sink inland while weakening. But it will continue to generate heavy rains in the interior of Mozambique as well as southern Malawi.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#318 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 4:59 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#319 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:14 pm


Argh! When will Freddy ever die??

Maybe only when he surpasses Ioke's ACE record?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#320 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:38 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests