SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#341 Postby aspen » Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:26 am

cycloneye wrote:Almost at the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/bb9VpLY.png

It might peak as a Cat 3 before landfall…if it even moves onto land at all today. 85+ ACE here we come.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#342 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:28 am

Bulletin of March 11 at 4:29 p.m. local time in Reunion (3.29 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.

Position on March 11 at 4 p.m. local time: 18.1 South / 37.3 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1905 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1030 km to the sector: SOUTH-WEST

Movement: Quasi-stationary.

System Information:

- Although having lost its presence, tropical cyclone FREDDY remained stable in intensified.

- FREDDY struggles to return to the lands of Mozambique and stays a stone's throw from the town of Quelimane, approximately 30 km from the maritime fringe of the Zambezi province.

- Since last night, Freddy has gradually slowed down his course and is continuing to move slowly towards the West-North-West, which should take him as close as possible to the coast of Mozambique. This slow movement, even temporarily the stationarity of the system, helps to further strengthen its area of ​​influence on the coasts and the hinterland of the Zambezi province.

- According to the latest trajectory estimates, FREDDY should touch the coast of Mozambique at the end of next night, or even Sunday morning, at the level of the Zambezi province near the town of Quelimane. The timing is still very uncertain to date and could still change. At the time of its touchdown, FREDDY should remain at a power stage, most likely at the tropical cyclone stage.

- The weather conditions will therefore continue to deteriorate in the coming hours. Destructive or even devastating winds, very dangerous seas and heavy rains that could lead to landslides, are very likely near the landing zone, on the direct periphery of the system.

- During the weekend, FREDDY should sink inland, gradually weakening. But it will continue to generate heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi.

- In view of the uncertainty linked to the movement of the system, and its proximity to the coasts of the Zambezi province, the inhabitants of the area are strongly invited to keep themselves informed of the safety instructions given by the local authorities.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#343 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:31 am

Still quite the disconnect between the GFS and Euro... GFS still thinking Freddy is going to re-emerge and linger for another 10 days. Euro has slowly caveated to that idea but still moves it inland.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#344 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:34 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#345 Postby aspen » Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:05 am

I think Freddy has surpassed Ioke’s ACE record now. CSU’s real time tropical cyclone page says just under 82, but since it’s using original and non-updated BT information, it’s slightly low.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#346 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:13 am

I'm hearing reports from YT that Freddy has stalled just offshore, is that true?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#347 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:40 am

0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#348 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:30 am


This is what I translated
DISASTER SCENARIO, for the province of Zambézia in Mozambique and the city of Quelimane! #FREDDY with gusts > 200 km/h remains almost stationary on the Mozambican coast...
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#349 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:39 am

ADT has Freddy at a Cat 3 Major Hurricane, T5.5 at 102 knots.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#350 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:22 pm

Freddy continues to improve even as it approaches landfall. What a strange storm. It has over performed so many times!
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

ChrisH-UK
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat May 29, 2021 8:22 am

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#351 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:28 pm



Sadly for it to happen it will be stalled in the area for days the damage done is going to be catastrophic to the region and many more people will have died from it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#352 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:44 pm

Image
Making landfall.
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#353 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:16 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#354 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:15 pm

The landfall Is official.

Bulletin of March 11 at 10:47 p.m. local time in Reunion (9.47 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.

Position on March 11 at 10 p.m. local: 17.8 South / 37.1 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1930 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1020 km to the sector: WEST-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 6 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY landed on the Mozambican coast around 9:15 p.m. Reunion time (8:15 p.m. Mayotte time) about 30 km east of the town of Quelimane in the province of Zambézia while being at the tropical cyclone stage with a slightly increased intensity (winds at 155 km/h at sea with gusts at 220 km/h) over the hours preceding the arrival on land.

- The cyclone is now interacting with the land and is beginning a weakening phase which will increase as it re-enters the land.

- The weather conditions are critical near the center with devastating winds, intense rains and a very dangerous sea state associated with marine flooding. These extreme conditions are more durable given the low speed of movement of the cyclone.

- During the weekend, FREDDY is sinking inland but will continue to generate very heavy rains inland, not only over Mozambique but also over southern Malawi. these rains are likely to cause widespread flooding and landslides in mountainous areas.

- In the course of next week, an exit at sea of ​​FREDDY is possible but the environment in which the system should then evolve does not appear favorable to a frank re-intensification.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#356 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:19 pm

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#357 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:18 pm

Based on images I've seen, I think it was about 105 kt at this landfall. Pressure was likely around 960 mb.
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#358 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:41 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on images I've seen, I think it was about 105 kt at this landfall. Pressure was likely around 960 mb.

I was thinking 100 knots at landfall, but based on improvement in images up to landfall, I'm in agreement with you for 105 knots.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#359 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:51 pm

1 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: SIO: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone

#360 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Mar 11, 2023 5:56 pm


While sustained winds have likely gone down, gusts may likely have stayed the same or maybe even increased. Gusts come down from the storm and if the upper level storm has intensified, the mixing down of gusts may also have strengthened.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.


Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests