SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

[ElectricStorm]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of March 07 at 10:38 p.m. local time in Reunion (9.38 p.m. local time in Mayotte):


TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 957 hPa.

Position on March 07 at 10 p.m. local time: 22.8 South / 41.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1405 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1170 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 7 km/h.

System Information:

- Tropical cylone FREDDY has intensified further over the past few hours.

- FREDDY continues its movement towards the North-West, accelerating slightly, moving it away from the Malagasy south-west coast.

- Despite the residual persistence of heavy seas, weather conditions are generally improving, particularly in terms of rain and wind in the province of Atsimo-Andrefana. However, the inhabitants of this region are invited to listen to the instructions of the local authorities.

- Keeping a trajectory in a general direction of the North-West, FREDDY could present during its movement intensity fluctuations during the next three days. However, a more marked intensification is possible from Thursday evening when the system will be on final approach to the coast of Mozambique. The arrival on the coast is scheduled for Friday evening, or even during the night of Friday to Saturday, probably at the level of the province of Zambezi.

- Weather conditions should gradually deteriorate, with the arrival of strong winds in the next 48 hours (probability of risk between 20 and 40%). In view of the uncertainty linked to the movement of the system, the impacts will be specified and refined later according to the next available data.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is shooting up, Freddy is a Category 2 again.

It'd say it's likely at least a C3 by now, wouldn't be surprised if we see a mid-C4 out of this.

Yep, ADT is now at 115 mph.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

The more important question I have is will there ever even be an Atlantic storm in the future that beats Freddy in ACE? Freddy has already comfortably exceeded storms like Ivan, the 1899 hurricane, and Irma in total ACE.

[JetFuel_SE]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

The more important question I have is will there ever even be an Atlantic storm in the future that beats Freddy in ACE? Freddy has already comfortably exceeded storms like Ivan, the 1899 hurricane, and Irma in total ACE.

Don't you guys dare jinx this, I don't need 40+ days of continuous singular hurricane anytime soon.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Theoretically we could have a Cabo Verde hurricane that tracks across the Atlantic, recurves near North America, then is forced down back into the MDR and once again travels across the Atlantic to then bury itself into Texas or something. If we ever get a storm named Freddy in the Atlantic...

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1633199597450563586



This is absurd.

[galaxy401]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

The more important question I have is will there ever even be an Atlantic storm in the future that beats Freddy in ACE? Freddy has already comfortably exceeded storms like Ivan, the 1899 hurricane, and Irma in total ACE.

Only way I can think of is a basin crosser storm. Forms off Africa, moves into the Caribbean, crosses Central America into the EPAC. Then it keeps chugging westward, eventually passes Hawaii, and finally reaches the WPAC where it either curves up near Japan or makes it to China. But this is near impossible because any ridge will pick up the storm northward at any point.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

The more important question I have is will there ever even be an Atlantic storm in the future that beats Freddy in ACE? Freddy has already comfortably exceeded storms like Ivan, the 1899 hurricane, and Irma in total ACE.

Only way I can think of is a basin crosser storm. Forms off Africa, moves into the Caribbean, crosses Central America into the EPAC. Then it keeps chugging westward, eventually passes Hawaii, and finally reaches the WPAC where it either curves up near Japan or makes it to China. But this is near impossible because any ridge will pick up the storm northward at any point.

The Hawaii area is also 9/10 times the killer of storms. The central pacific is quite hostile for several reasons. Mainly it's the lack of OHC.

[JetFuel_SE]

Now the question is will the entire 2023 Atlantic season be able to beat Freddy's ACE...

The more important question I have is will there ever even be an Atlantic storm in the future that beats Freddy in ACE? Freddy has already comfortably exceeded storms like Ivan, the 1899 hurricane, and Irma in total ACE.

Only way I can think of is a basin crosser storm. Forms off Africa, moves into the Caribbean, crosses Central America into the EPAC. Then it keeps chugging westward, eventually passes Hawaii, and finally reaches the WPAC where it either curves up near Japan or makes it to China. But this is near impossible because any ridge will pick up the storm northward at any point.

Just get a long tracker like Irma that ends up reforming in the subtropics then goes on to challenge Leslie in drunkenness. "Easy" 80-90 ACE.
I just jinxed it, didn't I?

[KWT]

Freddy looks pretty impressive tonight, hard to imagine it not getting towards that 110-120kts range at this point, and from there who knows.

Either way though, becoming increasingly likely Ioke's time at the top of the ACE table is coming to an end. Still will be a close run thing though.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1633240212175474688

[Teban54]

If we ever get a storm named Freddy in the Atlantic...

Considering that Frederic-Fabian-Fred happened to Atlantic's List 1, who knows. Maybe Freddy will enter the naming list one day, maybe even on List 1 as an ancestor of Fred

[Category5Kaiju]

According to the latest GFS, Freddy makes landfall over Mozambique, but then it reemerges off of the coast and travels down the Mozambique Channel into the open Indian Ocean again (seemingly headed southward though toward Antarctica).

If this happens, I might just name my future son Freddy so that he could be very strong and never give up on life.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of March 08 at 04:43 local time in Reunion (03.43 local time in Mayotte)


TROPICAL CYCLONE number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 150 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 215 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 963 hPa.

Position on March 08 at 04 local time: 22.2 South / 41.0 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1475 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1120 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: NORTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

System Information:

- The tropical cylone FREDDY maintained its intensification during the night, and confirms its acceleration in the direction of the North-West, thus moving away from the Malagasy south-west coast thus leading to a clear improvement in weather conditions for the South of Madagascar.

- Maintaining a trajectory towards the North-West, FREDDY could present during its movement a weakening during the next 24 hours, temporarily downgrading the system to the stage of a strong storm. However, a renewed intensity remains possible from Thursday when the system will be on final approach to the coast of Mozambique, thanks in particular to an increase in ocean potential. The arrival on the Mozambican coasts is scheduled for Friday evening, or even during the night of Friday to Saturday, very probably at the level of the province of Zambezi.

- The weather conditions should gradually deteriorate, with the arrival of strong winds in the next 48 hours (risk probability between 20 and 40%, increasing significantly from Saturday). The occurrence of destructive winds is also significant from Friday in the landing zone on the coast of the Zambezi province, probably between Quelimane and Pébane (point to be confirmed during the next trajectory forecasts). The sea state will be dangerous on the coast, with a significant risk of marine flooding. Heavy rains are also expected over the Zambezi province, but remaining fairly concentrated and not widespread given the relatively small size of the system

[Blown Away]

Absolutely amazing how Freddy has been bouncing around for a month… Really cool!!!

[doomhaMwx]

These Radarsat SAR passes over Cyclone Freddy yesterday (Mar 7) were ~13hrs apart and show how the system quickly intensified during that period. The 02:47Z pass found max winds of 78kts, while the 15:43Z pass found 95kts, and the RMW had contracted from 11nmi (20km) to 8nmi (15km)!

[aspen]

Freddy’s eye has closed, likely due to a bit of shear that’ll probably plague the system until closer to landfall. The HWRF has shown a broken eyewall until the last day before landfall, in which it intensifies into a low-end Cat 4.

[ChrisH-UK]

Freddy this morning.

Source -https://col.st/Cpvll

[ChrisH-UK]

Looking at the GFS 6z run Freddy looks to hit the coast of Mozambique but not go in land but staying out over water before hitting Madagascar again and if the GFS 6z run stays like it is I could see Freddy as a hurricane hitting Madagascar for the 3rd time.

GFS 10m MSLP

GFS 850mb