SPAC: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical

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SH, 99, 2023020500, , BEST, 0, 125S, 1649E, 15, 1004, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 992023.dat

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 156.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED EIR AND A 061127Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A STILL DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS
INDICATES INVEST 99P IS A IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST, AND DECENT EQUATORWARD AND
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE TO THE WEST. ALL
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 99P WILL
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STEADILY
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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Australian agency upgrades to Tropical Low.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 062325Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
A 070007Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN QUADRANTS. INVEST 99P
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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 https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1622852844973101056

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[Subtrop]

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 1:44 pm EST on Wednesday 8 February 2023

At 1 pm AEST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (Category 1) with central
pressure 990 hPa was located near latitude 15.7 south longitude 153.1 east,
which is about 340 km east northeast of Willis Is and 730 km northeast of
Mackay. The low is moving south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has developed over the northern Coral Sea. Gabrielle
is forecast to continue to track to the south during the rest of Wednesday and
then southeast from Thursday, remaining well offshore of the Queensland east
coast.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to strengthen further during Thursday,
becoming a severe tropical cyclone.

The system is forecast to track near Norfolk Island over the weekend.

A direct tropical cyclone impact or landfall is not expected for the Queensland
coast. However, exposed east coastal areas may experience large waves and fresh
to strong winds with the passing of this system, particularly during Thursday
and Friday.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm AEST today.

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IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:56 pm EST on Wednesday 8 February 2023

At 10 pm AEST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (Category 1) with central
pressure 987 hPa was located near latitude 16.3 south longitude 152.7 east,
which is about 290 km east of Willis Is and 650 km northeast of Mackay. The low
is moving southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle continues to develop over the Coral Sea. Gabrielle
is forecast to track south overnight and then turn to the southeast during
Thursday, remaining well offshore of the Queensland east coast. Gabrielle is
likely to pass very close to Norfolk Island later on Saturday or early Sunday
morning and then move away during Sunday.

Gabrielle is forecast to intensify to Category 2 early Thursday morning and
then become a severe tropical cyclone later on Thursday.

Gabrielle is not expected to approach the Queensland coast. However, exposed
eastern coastal areas may experience large waves and fresh to strong winds with
the passing of this system, particularly during Thursday and Friday.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am AEST today.

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Gabrielle looks better than Freddy.

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Here is a panoramic vew of the three cyclones right now in Sourhern Hemisphere.

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 https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1623760471794008064

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 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1623792040105451521

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 https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1623856948260007936

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 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1624027092143710209

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Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle at 3:00 am NFDT:
Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 130 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 185 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 25.6 degrees South, 163.5 degrees East , 580 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island and 1030 kilometres east northeast of Coolangatta .
Movement: east southeast at 44 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is moving towards the southeast. The centre of the cyclone is expected to pass over or near Norfolk Island on Saturday evening. Gale-force winds and high waves are expected to develop during Saturday morning well ahead of the cyclone approaching the island.


Hazards:
GALES are expected to develop at Norfolk Island during Saturday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop from Saturday afternoon and continue into the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIEL, CATEGORY 3, with extreme gusts up to 170 km/h is expected to pass over, or close to, Norfolk Island between 6pm and midnight.

As the cyclone centre passes on Saturday evening, destructive to very destructive winds may ease for short period of time, as the eye of the system passes over. Destructive winds are then likely to redevelop from the opposite direction.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about Norfolk Island. VERY HEAVY SURF which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is possible.

HEAVY RAIN is also likely to develop about Norfolk Island during Saturday, before easing on Sunday.