SPAC: INVEST 91P

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SPAC: INVEST 91P

#1 Postby Subtrop » Sat Feb 11, 2023 7:25 am

91P INVEST 230211 1200 13.1S 137.6E SHEM 20 1002
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 13, 2023 8:07 pm

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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:32 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.2S 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A PARTIAL 140021Z ASCAT-B
PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS,
OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P SLOWLY DEEPEN IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 14, 2023 7:01 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.5S 136.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 141254Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF 15-20KT WINDS WITH SMALL
POCKETS OF 25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P SLOWLY DEEPEN IN A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 15, 2023 1:13 pm

Downgraded to low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.1S 140.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 150932Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS DEPICT A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A 151200Z METAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND REVEALS
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 14KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
INVEST 91P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION
DUE LOW TO MODERATE (15-20) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P
TRACK IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND
MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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